Tennis · resolved market
ASB Classic: Adrian Mannarino vs Eliot Spizzirri
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaca5937277b6c845205483f2f6bd2bf746b8fdfaddee6f7e86567b0f78ea91c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spizzirriof Mannarino, Spizzirri
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mannarino | 12c | 6,011$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.53 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Mannarino | 1c | 4,916$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Mannarino | 3c | 3,401$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Mannarino | 3c | 2,530$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mannarino | 31c | 1,911$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.71 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Spizzirri | 62c | 1,460$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.74 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…dbc5backed Mannarino | 17c | 1,434$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.21 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…3748backed Mannarino | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 365 | 54.2%198 W · 167 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…c100backed Spizzirri | 61c | 976.78$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.94 | 430 | 51.2%220 W · 210 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Mannarino | 3c | 855.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Mannarino | 2c | 833.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73d…80e7backed Spizzirri | 77c | 759.28$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.61 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Spizzirri | 63c | 733.94$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.95 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Mannarino | 5c | 652.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…cee8backed Mannarino | 42c | 616.33$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.84 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Mannarino | 18c | 607.26$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.22 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48e…b476backed Spizzirri | 62c | 564.7$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.7 | 174 | 39.7%69 W · 105 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…7d67backed Spizzirri | 62c | 498.92$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.59 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Spizzirri | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.19 | 1,186 | 62.8%745 W · 441 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Mannarino | 37c | 473$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.01 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Mannarino | 39c | 399$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.27 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…0992backed Spizzirri | 62c | 322.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.14 | 656 | 51.8%340 W · 316 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Spizzirri | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mannarino | 37c | 311.55$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.27 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf74d…9930backed Spizzirri | 63c | 298.41$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.41 | 261 | 58.2%152 W · 109 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Mannarino | 38c | 279.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…d6a7backed Mannarino | 39c | 260$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Mannarino | 40c | 251.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Mannarino | 37c | 249.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Mannarino | 25c | 237.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Spizzirri | 71c | 209.66$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc6…1946backed Mannarino | 5c | 206.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Mannarino | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 684 | 30%205 W · 479 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Mannarino | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mannarino | 20c | 193.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…9bcbbacked Mannarino | 38c | 157.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Spizzirri | 64c | 156.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mannarino | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae04…7411backed Spizzirri | 63c | 136.05$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Mannarino | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Spizzirri | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 218 | 43.1%94 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Mannarino | 25c | 101.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1a…3652backed Mannarino | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Mannarino | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Spizzirri | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…1cfdbacked Mannarino | 38c | 99.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Mannarino | 21c | 80.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…de20backed Spizzirri | 79c | 71.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Mannarino | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 341 | 54.3%185 W · 156 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Mannarino | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 182 | 41.8%76 W · 106 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…161cbacked Spizzirri | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…8323backed Spizzirri | 78c | 64.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e4…e026backed Mannarino | 26c | 60.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Spizzirri | 63c | 57.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Mannarino | 20c | 55.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…160cbacked Mannarino | 39c | 51.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f68…ee80backed Mannarino | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…16fcbacked Spizzirri | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Mannarino | 40c | 45.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ec…2110backed Spizzirri | 60c | 45.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…675bbacked Spizzirri | 71c | 34.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 137 | 63.5%87 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…98abbacked Spizzirri | 77c | 32.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Mannarino | 37c | 29.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…639ebacked Spizzirri | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…3d2bbacked Spizzirri | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 78cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Spizzirri | 60c | 17.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…38c1backed Spizzirri | 80c | 12.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…9851backed Spizzirri | 80c | 12.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 79cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ASB Classic: Adrian Mannarino vs Eliot Spizzirrithis page
- Mannarino vs. Spizzirri: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Mannarino vs. Spizzirri: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Mannarino vs. Spizzirri: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Mannarino vs. Spizzirri: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Spizzirri (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5)Spizzirri won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.