Movies · resolved market
Will Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) win Best Actor – Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad7e733352025045fb2cd134cf36eb5ffd84303d047a6157d5735cda8ccef803
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed Yes | 13c | 882$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…8bd5backed Yes | 22c | 761.83$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.98 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c96…b9d9backed Yes | 21c | 705.32$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 18c | 685.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.25 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 11c | 628$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 16c | 508.12$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.24 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 14c | 470$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed Yes | 11c | 463$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked Yes | 14c | 450$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 11c | 437.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed Yes | 12c | 428$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 79c | 423.18$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 18c | 197.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2355…c508backed Yes | 15c | 171.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…44f7backed Yes | 14c | 159.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…6a72backed Yes | 14c | 154$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…3778backed Yes | 15c | 149.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 18c | 123.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…3d05backed Yes | 12c | 122$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…bb46backed Yes | 13c | 116.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 17c | 102.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfef6…e212backed Yes | 21c | 96.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416b…bad6backed Yes | 17c | 86.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 15c | 85.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 82.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 79.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 78c | 66.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed No | 79c | 61.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4f…e58cbacked Yes | 23c | 48.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) win Best Actor – Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) win Best Actor – Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Jesse Plemons (Bugonia) win Best Actor – Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme) win Best Actor – Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.