MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xade5def792522d9f431e10acbcf8cb2d8abc91033784e208c661418851b3c3b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Houston Astros, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 4,289$2,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,015.98 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Houston Astros | 47c | 3,066$1,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.55 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Houston Astros | 48c | 1,800$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Colorado Rockies | 52c | 1,113$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.67 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 47c | 1,091$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.95 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Houston Astros | 50c | 868.56$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.98 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 637.25$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.88 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Houston Astros | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 190.14$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.65 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 149.42$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Colorado Rockies | 49c | 140.56$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 120.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.22 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Houston Astros | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 92.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Houston Astros | 47c | 86.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 85.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Colorado Rockies | 62c | 71.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…ebf6backed Houston Astros | 47c | 57.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 56.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9d…1299backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 54.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 48.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 283 | 47.7%135 W · 148 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Houston Astros | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Houston Astros | 48c | 45.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 43c | 43.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 40.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Colorado Rockies | 56c | 40.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Houston Astros | 47c | 40.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Houston Astros | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 35.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…954ebacked Colorado Rockies | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Colorado Rockies | 49c | 34.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Colorado Rockies | 54c | 25.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…4740backed Houston Astros | 47c | 24.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Houston Astros | 48c | 23.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Colorado Rockies | 52c | 22.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 128 | 64.1%82 W · 46 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Houston Astros | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 16.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.