Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadf4e84246576f42022a5fff03616e8bfaa0d10a4990d2f4455e6ec9dc11f8bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7704…48c5backed Yes | 20c | 6,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…eb42backed Yes | 20c | 4,010$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2846…e185backed No | 80c | 3,125$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…7d58backed No | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b6…940abacked No | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 12c | 2,407$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.39 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…88febacked No | 80c | 1,875$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…7e90backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcae…3e14backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8aa…1342backed Yes | 19c | 999.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 19c | 666$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 272 | 35.7%97 W · 175 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 20c | 658.93$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.79 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 14c | 587.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.72 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…7197backed Yes | 21c | 487$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed Yes | 21c | 486.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 80c | 485.48$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x301e…3f91backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 79c | 388.12$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.55 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf32…aecbbacked Yes | 20c | 360$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 80c | 293.92$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c5…7d0ebacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f91…9388backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 16c | 212.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 322 | 22.4%72 W · 250 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bf…dfb9backed Yes | 12c | 205.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…a19bbacked Yes | 10c | 183.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 420 | 43.8%184 W · 236 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…a286backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5c82backed Yes | 20c | 146.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 169 | 46.2%78 W · 91 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5376…6e08backed Yes | 16c | 131.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…e866backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 19c | 123.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 240 | 62.5%150 W · 90 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 20c | 101$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 86 | 31.4%27 W · 59 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 44.6%62 W · 77 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2791backed No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 21c | 98.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc8…2feebacked Yes | 21c | 95.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -68%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 78c | 92.55$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 189 | 58.7%111 W · 78 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa841…46cbbacked Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked No | 79c | 76.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2541…10a8backed Yes | 22c | 75.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 227 | 64.8%147 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…4acebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 45%63 W · 77 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…d3ddbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…a17bbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x804f…c444backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 79cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…722fbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 78cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8243…56ebbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5b…9e37backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 80cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac0…caeebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…af71backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb66f…93f8backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c5…3e5fbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ab…d559backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 79cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dad…f0dcbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26?Yes won
- Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-10-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.