Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae53925cbb275114ea775c49e2446afa517ad1d8f6b994cba36c59d983cf321d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 8c | 3,557$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 25c | 602$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.58 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 26c | 499.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.6 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 32c | 384.01$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.09 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 355.12$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 66c | 312.77$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.49 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 6c | 277.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 276.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 260.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 230.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 207.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 39c | 175$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 22c | 172.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 165.31$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x421c…18bcbacked Yes | 9c | 164.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 160.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 151$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 8c | 150.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 150.37$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 68c | 135.57$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 126$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 74c | 94.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 39c | 76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 25c | 71.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 16c | 68.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 44c | 61.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 54c | 59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 76c | 55.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 71c | 54.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 80c | 52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 22c | 51.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 51.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…c353backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 46.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 46.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 72c | 45.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 77c | 41.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 41.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b9ebbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…a7e5backed No | 58c | 29.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 69c | 27.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 72c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 58c | 22.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 77c | 21.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 73c | 14.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.