Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1418a032fc99daf7c64b557c17579460037543c3f9ccf68e4ff092681e213d3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 39c | 1,768$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.98 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 1,154$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 10c | 575.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 5c | 538.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 506.14$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.39 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 15c | 503.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 44c | 404.04$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.39 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 34c | 313.96$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.17 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 285.49$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 61c | 284.49$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.95 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 56c | 283.88$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.66 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 37c | 250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 239.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 228.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 224.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 48c | 214$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 10c | 212.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 196.81$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 9c | 181.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 13c | 158.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 61c | 148$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 148$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 18c | 146.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 34c | 144$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 141.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 126$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 123$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 69c | 111.74$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 43c | 109.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 105.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 101.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 68c | 97.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 32c | 94.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 39c | 93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 72c | 88.45$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 62c | 87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 36c | 84.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 36c | 74.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 34c | 71.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 36c | 69.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 68c | 69.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 23c | 69.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed No | 61c | 68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 25c | 65.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed Yes | 35c | 58.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed No | 66c | 57.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 40c | 56.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 47c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 27c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 51.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e92…ad5bbacked Yes | 35c | 50.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 78c | 42.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 42.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 73c | 41.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 41.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 63c | 41.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 45c | 41.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 44c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…8de9backed No | 67c | 40.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…38fabacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 39.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…35f2backed Yes | 35c | 37.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7da…138cbacked No | 66c | 34.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19d2…0868backed Yes | 36c | 34.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 64c | 33.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 45c | 33.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c9…5915backed Yes | 34c | 32.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9291…8a20backed No | 67c | 31.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…bb96backed No | 68c | 26.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…d63cbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 43c | 23.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 19.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…68f6backed No | 66c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 80c | 16.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 67c | 15.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 73c | 15.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 79c | 15.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.