Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd818778211acb0c709021925ecbe54c82716ad387c2b00a9a6e762d7d2a4f898
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 43c | 1,041$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.16 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 57c | 714.71$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.07 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 543.71$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 2c | 472.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 61c | 407.09$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.72 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 45c | 383.88$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.54 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 43c | 350$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 342.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 338.15$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 284.94$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.76 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 63c | 277.82$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.83 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 40c | 250.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.07 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 230.69$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 37c | 227.7$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.72 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 215$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 202.84$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b9ebbacked Yes | 74c | 197.66$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 195.7$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.29 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 58c | 186.06$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.38 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 176.74$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 43c | 176$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.88 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 56c | 161.98$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 160.45$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 43c | 158.71$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 155.21$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 57c | 148$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 63c | 148$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.91 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 145.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 54c | 138.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 52c | 138.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 126$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 39c | 122.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.35 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 120$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 57c | 119.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 47c | 119.57$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.41 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 58c | 106.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 38c | 100.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 41c | 85.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 84.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 46c | 76.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 55c | 73.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 62c | 70.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 43c | 67.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 20c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 48c | 65.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x123c…c057backed Yes | 42c | 64.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 37c | 63.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 61.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 49c | 61.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf26e…cf82backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 48c | 56.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 55c | 52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 51.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 37c | 50.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 46c | 50.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 41c | 49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 53c | 47.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 44c | 47.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fe…8caabacked No | 61c | 43.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 59c | 43.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 56c | 41.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 63c | 41.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 41.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e7…9cd8backed No | 61c | 40.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 51c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 47c | 37.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 37.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 58c | 36.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 43c | 36.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 58c | 35.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 45c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 62c | 33.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 43c | 33.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7572…e484backed Yes | 40c | 32.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 46c | 30.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.