South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Fluminense FC vs. CA Paranaense end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae71f2f49f959519aed91e57731bb340921d8c2d5c99d82f2faefa76e48a7ec6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,693 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 46c | 12,224$5,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,592.62 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 57c | 11,293$6,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,851.91 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 9c | 1,958$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.25 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 49c | 1,471$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.36 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 63c | 879$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.12 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87eb…582fbacked Yes | 30c | 853.6$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed No | 49c | 826.43$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.37 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 35c | 768.3$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.87 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 72c | 474.81$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.95 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 71c | 330.07$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…4789backed Yes | 28c | 312.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a2…bb2cbacked No | 72c | 312.5$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +196.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 44c | 240.64$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.73 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 46c | 224.26$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.08 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 38c | 203.63$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Yes | 67c | 165.54$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.91 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Yes | 11c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 39c | 158.72$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.82 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked No | 49c | 138$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 51c | 129.63$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d3…8a20backed Yes | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 47c | 122.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x087f…2ebfbacked No | 59c | 120.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2d…8668backed Yes | 61c | 107.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 75c | 76.76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92de…87eebacked Yes | 61c | 63.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 28c | 63.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 201 | 42.3%85 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 51c | 55.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 50c | 49.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 28c | 46.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6058…1327backed Yes | 60c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 62c | 41.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 74c | 37.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde66…be48backed No | 70c | 36.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…d0d4backed Yes | 63c | 28.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912c…f468backed No | 48c | 26.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbb…68fabacked Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 63c | 24.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd855…7b55backed Yes | 67c | 22.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Yes | 58c | 22.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 44 | 84.1%37 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…0306backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fluminense FC vs. CA Paranaense end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-03-15?No won
- Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-03-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.