South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA River Plate: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae7bf22dab3f3766758372b32a6816a50ce242584bfef170873affaa38c80d20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2795…fd6bbacked Under | 41c | 5,379$2,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,173.87 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 4,598$2,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.97 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 40c | 4,001$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.24 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 36c | 3,900$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.97 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 1,796$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.9 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 61c | 1,254$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.12 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 13c | 1,250$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Over | 56c | 999$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.44 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 51c | 984.58$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.49 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2039…acddbacked Over | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 60c | 796.55$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.06 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 66c | 604.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.54 | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Over | 44c | 525$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 504.6$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.45 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 34c | 439.35$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.52 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 37c | 271.33$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 63c | 232.17$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 48c | 213.46$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.46 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 33c | 202.31$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Over | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 32c | 187.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c6…fde6backed Over | 36c | 165.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…9032backed Over | 36c | 160.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 28c | 146.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d98…84cabacked Over | 27c | 130.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Over | 33c | 127.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Over | 57c | 115.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…997ebacked Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.37per pick | 41cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 40c | 99.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 40c | 92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 32c | 73.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 337 | 45.4%153 W · 184 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 70c | 70.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 64c | 65.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 38c | 59.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab52…293bbacked Over | 36c | 56.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 65c | 52.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…a67dbacked Over | 59c | 50.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 68c | 50.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 28c | 46.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 36c | 32.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62af…2cd1backed Under | 64c | 27.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 45c | 25.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f2…c016backed Under | 43c | 24.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…393dbacked Under | 69c | 22.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 59c | 20.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 63c | 20.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Under | 71c | 19.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4a…7bd0backed Under | 77c | 16.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23c…249bbacked Under | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA River Plate: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA River Plate: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA River Plate: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA River Plate: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA River Plate: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.