Tennis · resolved market
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Michael Zheng: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae887c192a97a7e79b62bcd823debe2c2fdc6ab80b0fd5c925a348a818840b71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Under 3.5 | 45c | 7,179$3,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,948.59 | 582 | 32%186 W · 396 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…eb9abacked Over 3.5 | 55c | 7,000$3,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,849 | 254 | 53.1%135 W · 119 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over 3.5 | 55c | 1,452$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.12 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…53ffbacked Under 3.5 | 49c | 1,168$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.67 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…b795backed Over 3.5 | 51c | 753.19$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.3 | 541 | 41.4%224 W · 317 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed Under 3.5 | 46c | 625.85$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.85 | 656 | 52.1%342 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under 3.5 | 44c | 600$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under 3.5 | 44c | 599.98$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.97 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd169…8ff6backed Under 3.5 | 54c | 526.92$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.37 | 284 | 37.3%106 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over 3.5 | 57c | 337.96$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.84 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over 3.5 | 46c | 335.75$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.45 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Over 3.5 | 51c | 289.33$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.56 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Under 3.5 | 45c | 240$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under 3.5 | 42c | 220.28$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.76 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72db…1029backed Over 3.5 | 55c | 212.95$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.12 | 108 | 59.3%64 W · 44 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…96d1backed Over 3.5 | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 65.6%305 W · 160 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over 3.5 | 55c | 175$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…c87dbacked Over 3.5 | 57c | 175$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Over 3.5 | 52c | 170$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 486 | 37.7%183 W · 303 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Over 3.5 | 46c | 109$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 197 | 44.7%88 W · 109 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under 3.5 | 43c | 103.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Over 3.5 | 65c | 101$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 223 | 59.6%133 W · 90 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…7c7dbacked Over 3.5 | 57c | 100.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under 3.5 | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Over 3.5 | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 99.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.79 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over 3.5 | 51c | 89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1b…b120backed Over 3.5 | 57c | 84.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Under 3.5 | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 346 | 37.9%131 W · 215 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…4b52backed Over 3.5 | 55c | 53.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 165 | 88.5%146 W · 19 L | +37.7wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +33%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under 3.5 | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under 3.5 | 45c | 27.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed Over 3.5 | 57c | 26.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 291 | 47.8%139 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb354…655ebacked Over 3.5 | 64c | 22.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Over 3.5 | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Michael Zheng: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Zheng: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs ZhengAuger-Aliassime won
- Set 2 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs ZhengAuger-Aliassime won
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Zheng (+1.5)Auger-Aliassime won
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-2.5) vs Zheng (+2.5)Auger-Aliassime won
- Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Michael ZhengFelix Auger-Aliassime won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.