NFL · resolved market
Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 50.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaee25bc1d4d28de3941cb853065724d920f898543c0561518b1735861ccc8389
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 48c | 22,599$10,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,792.88 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Under | 52c | 20,132$10,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,663.4 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d9…878fbacked Over | 48c | 10,400$4,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,992 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1be6…67a7backed Over | 48c | 10,400$4,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,992 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a0…fb7ebacked Under | 52c | 9,600$4,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,608 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d8…0649backed Under | 52c | 9,600$4,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,608 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 7,454$3,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,496.56 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 53c | 7,294$3,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,427.83 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 7,000$3,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,290 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 52c | 5,124$2,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,468.28 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 48c | 5,015$2,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,406.81 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 47c | 1,528$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.13 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 48c | 1,415$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.2 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Over | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Over | 48c | 999.99$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 53c | 991.09$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.81 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Over | 49c | 981.61$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 49c | 819.39$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…c9fabacked Under | 52c | 800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb12…4c15backed Under | 52c | 760$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Under | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…2e41backed Under | 53c | 303.64$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.71 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Under | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 46c | 219.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Under | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 136.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 51c | 104.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4162…46cfbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Over | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -9.5wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Over | 49c | 51.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f93…6197backed Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 52c | 31.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa86…f499backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe604…0bd6backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 29.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…b99abacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e4…5364backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a0…be02backed Under | 71c | 21.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 50.5this page
- Colts vs. ChiefsChiefs won
- Colts vs. Chiefs: 1H MoneylineColts won
- Colts vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 48.5Under won
- Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Colts won
- Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.