NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x036eff310cd5251570bb05643ccaa2664767ebc288e60c539af4cdeba80ba1e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coltsof Chiefs, Colts
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $268,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $268,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $268,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82a1…e03abacked Colts | 53c | 234,966$125,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109,965.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Chiefs | 46c | 95,013$43,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,893.73 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Chiefs | 48c | 50,000$23,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,900 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chiefs | 47c | 36,225$17,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,183.92 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Chiefs | 45c | 35,416$15,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,937.15 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Colts | 53c | 15,000$7,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,120 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Chiefs | 49c | 9,999$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,899.5 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Chiefs | 49c | 7,526$3,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,687.55 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Chiefs | 50c | 7,500$3,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,725 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Chiefs | 49c | 7,500$3,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,675 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Colts | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Chiefs | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Colts | 51c | 1,917$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.36 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Colts | 54c | 1,600$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Chiefs | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Chiefs | 49c | 1,429$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.21 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb60…137abacked Chiefs | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Chiefs | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Colts | 52c | 437.44$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.53 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Chiefs | 49c | 360$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…9b23backed Colts | 49c | 301.37$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.7 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Chiefs | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Colts | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Chiefs | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Chiefs | 51c | 266$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.18 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Chiefs | 49c | 243$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +12.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Chiefs | 44c | 225$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Chiefs | 39c | 220$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Chiefs | 44c | 204.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Colts | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Chiefs | 49c | 98.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Chiefs | 48c | 95.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Colts | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Colts | 56c | 87.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Chiefs | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Chiefs | 45c | 75.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Chiefs | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 163 | 60.1%98 W · 65 L | +16.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Chiefs | 49c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Chiefs | 50c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Chiefs | 49c | 64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 205 | 55.6%114 W · 91 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Colts | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca3d…cd13backed Colts | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Colts | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…bed5backed Chiefs | 47c | 44.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Chiefs | 43c | 40.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Chiefs | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Chiefs | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Chiefs | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Chiefs | 46c | 36.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +5.0wins | +0.50per pick | 40cpaid | +173.1%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Chiefs | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Chiefs | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +11.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Chiefs | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 105 | 65.7%69 W · 36 L | +16.6wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Chiefs | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +7.6wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +103%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Chiefs | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Chiefs | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | +16.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Chiefs | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +14.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Colts | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Chiefs | 44c | 29.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Chiefs | 49c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Colts | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Chiefs | 41c | 25.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Chiefs | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Chiefs | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Chiefs | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Chiefs | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +15.3wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Chiefs | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Chiefs | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 109 | 58.7%64 W · 45 L | +9.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Chiefs | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +15.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Chiefs | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Chiefs | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Chiefs | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 98 | 62.2%61 W · 37 L | +11.8wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Chiefs | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)this page
- Colts vs. ChiefsChiefs won
- Colts vs. Chiefs: 1H MoneylineColts won
- Colts vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 48.5Under won
- Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 49.5Under won
- Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.