NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6984d98dcd3e46552d5a14dcd85b256aaf48f11d9945e4445192c55e13eec3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coltsof Chiefs, Colts
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $596,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $600,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $596,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe73e…74febacked Chiefs | 54c | 216,644$116,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116,149.98 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Colts | 50c | 131,418$65,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66,337.12 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca36…1e9cbacked Colts | 47c | 125,911$59,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66,605.98 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Chiefs | 52c | 98,000$50,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,960 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Colts | 44c | 46,477$20,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,026.93 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Colts | 46c | 32,273$14,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,405.71 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Chiefs | 54c | 30,000$16,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,335.3 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Colts | 48c | 29,833$14,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,513.33 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Colts | 49c | 18,512$9,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,365.97 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Chiefs | 48c | 17,817$8,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,550.11 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Chiefs | 51c | 16,781$8,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,479.9 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Colts | 47c | 16,173$7,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,573.31 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Colts | 45c | 14,980$6,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,239.04 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Chiefs | 48c | 13,537$6,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,546.03 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe14…11eebacked Chiefs | 47c | 12,572$5,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,908.69 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Chiefs | 52c | 12,451$6,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,433.08 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6397…cd96backed Colts | 48c | 11,880$5,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,177.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Chiefs | 55c | 10,877$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Chiefs | 50c | 10,000$4,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,950 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Colts | 50c | 9,545$4,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,772.31 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Colts | 50c | 7,500$3,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,722.5 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Colts | 47c | 7,000$3,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,710 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Chiefs | 49c | 6,986$3,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,422.96 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Chiefs | 50c | 6,945$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Chiefs | 50c | 6,495$3,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,259.04 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…dd3cbacked Colts | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,879.98 | 141 | 48.2%68 W · 73 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Chiefs | 53c | 5,993$3,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,171.75 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…ce9bbacked Chiefs | 50c | 5,190$2,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,594.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Colts | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed Colts | 45c | 4,538$2,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,495.85 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Chiefs | 51c | 4,500$2,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,294.99 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…1636backed Colts | 55c | 3,646$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,646.47 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf1…1c4ebacked Colts | 49c | 3,059$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Chiefs | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Chiefs | 51c | 2,440$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.49 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Colts | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.22 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Colts | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.66 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Chiefs | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.09 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Chiefs | 48c | 2,023$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.56 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Chiefs | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Colts | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbda…6e2cbacked Colts | 46c | 1,800$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Colts | 51c | 1,700$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Colts | 44c | 1,654$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.12 | 169 | 55%93 W · 76 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Colts | 48c | 1,647$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.26 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Chiefs | 50c | 1,575$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.5 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06ab…d376backed Chiefs | 50c | 1,522$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Chiefs | 53c | 1,514$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.12 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed Colts | 50c | 1,488$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Colts | 47c | 1,471$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.39 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Colts | 28c | 1,361$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.04 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Chiefs | 55c | 1,100$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Colts | 51c | 1,060$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.27 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Colts | 61c | 1,056$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.02 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa71a…e4e2backed Chiefs | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a81…aa82backed Colts | 50c | 1,019$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Colts | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Colts | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Colts | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Colts | 51c | 999.96$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.98 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Colts | 49c | 990$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.9 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Chiefs | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Chiefs | 52c | 821.34$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.2 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Colts | 49c | 800$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Chiefs | 55c | 799.99$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Colts | 51c | 779.88$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.92 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed Chiefs | 51c | 778.42$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Colts | 47c | 667.75$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.44 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Chiefs | 50c | 654$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…4aafbacked Colts | 50c | 610$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +138.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Colts | 51c | 574.99$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.75 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Chiefs | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Colts | 59c | 504.8$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.97 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Chiefs | 50c | 472$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3858…a870backed Chiefs | 50c | 469.12$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816f…acbcbacked Colts | 48c | 418.79$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Chiefs | 49c | 410$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Colts | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Colts | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Chiefs | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Colts | 52c | 335.99$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.63 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Colts | 48c | 333.33$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.33 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Chiefs | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Colts | 43c | 291.07$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.62 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Chiefs | 52c | 289.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.46 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Chiefs | 54c | 275$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 117 | 40.2%47 W · 70 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Chiefs | 46c | 247.09$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.37 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…e5a1backed Colts | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…fe7bbacked Colts | 45c | 220$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Chiefs | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…8a3ebacked Colts | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe176…58e4backed Colts | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x753b…3d0fbacked Colts | 50c | 211.47$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2422backed Colts | 43c | 211.11$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.11 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Chiefs | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 199 | 48.2%96 W · 103 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Colts | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Chiefs | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Colts | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…0123backed Chiefs | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Chiefs | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)this page
- Colts vs. ChiefsChiefs won
- Colts vs. Chiefs: 1H MoneylineColts won
- Colts vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 48.5Under won
- Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 49.5Under won
- Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.