TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pittsburgh Piratesof Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,170
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,293

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,170 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xead1…c76abacked Chicago Cubs40c2,788$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1021,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed Pittsburgh Pirates62c2,742$1,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.3816547.3%78 W · 87 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates61c2,620$1,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.85747.4%27 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago Cubs27c2,247$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.162,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs37c2,218$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.1612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates74c1,221$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.126,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c5e…6896backed Pittsburgh Pirates60c1,149$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fd5…9801backed Chicago Cubs39c1,131$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.243141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates61c1,118$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.121,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pittsburgh Pirates61c1,093$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.0265050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed Pittsburgh Pirates60c902.6$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.045350.9%27 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates61c626.44$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.699,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pittsburgh Pirates61c514.05$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.595,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c23…261ebacked Chicago Cubs39c513.11$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.54666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+45.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Chicago Cubs39c510.73$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.7825349.4%125 W · 128 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Chicago Cubs40c500.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.051,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Chicago Cubs40c500.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.0534452.6%181 W · 163 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Chicago Cubs38c472.52$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.711,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Chicago Cubs39c386.9$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.9334145.2%154 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Chicago Cubs38c354.1$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5610647.2%50 W · 56 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-10.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x096a…0074backed Pittsburgh Pirates62c315.23$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.79633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Chicago Cubs40c313.3$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.3266448.2%320 W · 344 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Pittsburgh Pirates62c259.94$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.7811450.9%58 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates61c244.63$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4129354.9%161 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Pittsburgh Pirates61c240.15$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.6644348.5%215 W · 228 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Chicago Cubs39c192$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.888530.6%26 W · 59 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-27.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed Pittsburgh Pirates61c164.85$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.292254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04eb…f50dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates61c150.38$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6518754%101 W · 86 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb47b…c6b1backed Chicago Cubs29c133.36$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2911138.7%43 W · 68 L-11.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1fb1…8436backed Chicago Cubs39c123.51$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1727644.9%124 W · 152 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Pittsburgh Pirates61c122.32$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.71,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Pittsburgh Pirates61c122.32$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.794648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Pittsburgh Pirates61c122.32$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.71,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Pittsburgh Pirates61c122.32$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.71,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Pittsburgh Pirates61c122.32$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.739351.9%204 W · 189 L+1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Pittsburgh Pirates61c122.32$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.741847.6%199 W · 219 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Pittsburgh Pirates61c122.32$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.712656.3%71 W · 55 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Pittsburgh Pirates61c122.32$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.715753.5%84 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Chicago Cubs40c120.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.252449%257 W · 267 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Chicago Cubs40c120.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.215552.3%81 W · 74 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates61c119.88$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7513361.7%82 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec15…9b0cbacked Chicago Cubs41c118.94$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.228845.5%40 W · 48 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Chicago Cubs30c115.58$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1443043%185 W · 245 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a84…e21abacked Pittsburgh Pirates64c94.57$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.89933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid+7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79f1…178abacked Chicago Cubs40c84.35$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.744047.5%19 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates69c83.39$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.235,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Pittsburgh Pirates61c80.05$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2229450.7%149 W · 145 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaff…eaf6backed Chicago Cubs40c74.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8814047.1%66 W · 74 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7f…4c60backed Pittsburgh Pirates62c65.19$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7710356.3%58 W · 45 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Pittsburgh Pirates62c58.63$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2816553.3%88 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3c2…5509backed Pittsburgh Pirates65c57.82$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3422154.3%120 W · 101 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Chicago Cubs41c57.35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6184122.7%191 W · 650 L-81.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Chicago Cubs22c56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.321,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Pittsburgh Pirates78c55.26$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.164,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Chicago Cubs39c54.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2370154.2%380 W · 321 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…3d0ebacked Chicago Cubs28c51.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6126553.2%141 W · 124 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033b…5e3fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates61c48.93$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.083253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Pittsburgh Pirates60c48.8$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.526850%34 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d30…5f85backed Pittsburgh Pirates64c48.6$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.511149.5%55 W · 56 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates61c39.12$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.261,05750.2%531 W · 526 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Pittsburgh Pirates61c38.36$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.136,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Chicago Cubs35c37.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8423522.6%53 W · 182 L-20.7wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Chicago Cubs38c35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.32,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb719…b584backed Pittsburgh Pirates61c33.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.02666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+33.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates60c32.47$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.996,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86f3…685cbacked Chicago Cubs39c28.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.271050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates55c27.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4147345.7%216 W · 257 L+2.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd05…61d6backed Chicago Cubs41c25.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.613141.9%13 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-28.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates70c24.92$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5855464.1%355 W · 199 L+63.1wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6866…b8f4backed Pittsburgh Pirates61c20.6$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.03475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+65.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed Pittsburgh Pirates61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.823750.6%120 W · 117 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Pittsburgh Pirates61c19.53$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6286653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x383d…87eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates61c19.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4213743.8%60 W · 77 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates68c15.59$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.