TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$126,934
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$165,893

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,934 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3e2f…aaf8backed Over49c35,928$17,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,714.144940.8%20 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Under47c25,886$12,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,719.442544%11 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d0a…dda0backed Over53c18,703$9,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,912.36650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under51c9,124$4,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,441.8412551.2%64 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under51c8,359$4,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,064.0312,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aba…4961backed Under51c7,982$4,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,911.221136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe23…b587backed Over48c6,749$3,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,268.4160%0 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over52c4,044$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,094.51,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92010,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cea…b12dbacked Under49c3,638$1,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,846.584740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over51c3,353$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,710.0565050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under51c2,065$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.934452.6%181 W · 163 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under51c2,062$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.931,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over52c1,644$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.965,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed Over51c1,176$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.965350.9%27 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Over50c1,100$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55021538.6%83 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under50c1,020$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.221,72850.4%871 W · 857 L+57.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa44a…88ecbacked Under51c901.1$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.5411743.6%51 W · 66 L-9.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-20.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Under51c837.78$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.5815753.5%84 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033b…5e3fbacked Under50c698.39$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.293253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Under60c688.66$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.445,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x448d…3adebacked Under48c638.62$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.081675%12 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+59%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under50c591.32$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.7278146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under51c570.41$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.91,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under51c570.41$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.91,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Under51c538.68$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.951,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under51c530.4$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.91,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under51c530.4$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.939351.9%204 W · 189 L+1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over49c509.7$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.752,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked Over52c431.21$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.238345.8%38 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Under51c380.61$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.512656.3%71 W · 55 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Over53c366.72$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.3618239.6%72 W · 110 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47b…c6b1backed Over53c366.72$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.3611138.7%43 W · 68 L-11.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x273d…1123backed Over50c337.35$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.67250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Over36c322$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.358530.6%26 W · 59 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-27.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over51c281.54$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.786,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x669d…ec4cbacked Over52c280.15$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.68757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc32…00bfbacked Over53c275.04$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.776847.1%32 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over52c250.35$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.4967849.3%334 W · 344 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Over51c210.89$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5519252.6%101 W · 91 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Under51c205.23$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.170154.2%380 W · 321 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Under49c202.6$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.3311450.9%58 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x994b…c047backed Under51c202.25$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.14257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001,44550%723 W · 722 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under51c190.24$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.226,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over52c179.67$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4378550.2%394 W · 391 L+2.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under49c168.83$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.113158.1%18 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfba9…d704backed Over53c151.03$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.05450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked Over30c127.8$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5955464.1%355 W · 199 L+63.1wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Under63c126$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6449942.9%214 W · 285 L-31.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f36…905fbacked Over30c125.51$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3619152.9%101 W · 90 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over52c112.5$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.51,58648.5%770 W · 816 L-2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe67…dd7ebacked Over53c110.02$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3112742.5%54 W · 73 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b45…d196backed Over52c106.83$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.551747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62db…d58ebacked Under48c101.98$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.032733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-27.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Under51c100.94$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4680052%416 W · 384 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Under51c100.94$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4663454.3%344 W · 290 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc75…5431backed Under51c100.94$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.462951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b11…58c9backed Under51c100.94$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.462853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Over42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425839.7%23 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ed0…b5b8backed Under57c99.54$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.82356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under48c98.88$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4257747.7%275 W · 302 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over52c98.54$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2461948.6%301 W · 318 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over53c86.48$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.681,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b71…80ecbacked Over36c80.51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.844148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaff…eaf6backed Under51c72.21$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3814047.1%66 W · 74 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25ed…3e98backed Over52c65.37$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9925748.2%124 W · 133 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under59c58.72$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3466749.3%329 W · 338 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over52c56.15$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.942,32949.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66c0…5fc2backed Over53c55.01$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1525356.9%144 W · 109 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9744…cab4backed Under50c52.28$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.952729.6%8 W · 19 L-7.0wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-48.8%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked Under48c46.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.182653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under58c39.41$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7126854.1%145 W · 123 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe5…7936backed Over53c36.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4419248.4%93 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf05f…91d5backed Over53c36.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.441782.4%14 W · 3 L+5.0wins+0.29per pick53cpaid+58.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4904…739abacked Over53c30.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Under51c28.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9947549.7%236 W · 239 L+17.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x788e…e086backed Over50c27.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.972853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03df…1dbabacked Over53c27.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.57666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+44.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f98…ec35backed Over53c25.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3313144.3%58 W · 73 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over52c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over52c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1328352.3%148 W · 135 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c86…456bbacked Over53c22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6611854.2%64 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.