Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C or below on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf21841e4d96301a5eb1990bb23c9494b572c15225db47af2f09a8ba8f7290d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 280.98$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 242.54$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…254cbacked Yes | 31c | 163.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 26c | 156.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 21c | 143.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7539…2719backed Yes | 14c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 14c | 129.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 98.49$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 37c | 81.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 25c | 80.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…d080backed Yes | 31c | 64.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 26c | 64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 79c | 63.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb39…1bacbacked Yes | 24c | 60.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb357…46a0backed Yes | 20c | 54.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 22c | 52.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…0e0bbacked Yes | 25c | 51.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdee5…67bfbacked No | 80c | 48.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 47.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…d8d3backed No | 68c | 44.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 72c | 42.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 78c | 40.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 69c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac0…a0b8backed No | 61c | 35.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 35.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84aa…e3f4backed No | 76c | 34.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 31.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…8cbbbacked Yes | 37c | 29.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 79c | 29.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a87…70aabacked No | 74c | 26.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 39c | 25.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 75c | 25.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 23.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 77c | 19.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 78c | 17.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 78c | 17.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed No | 75c | 15.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 76c | 14.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 79c | 13.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C or below on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.