Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f697586c36ea3c58ba730bf50639a0ab6cfd229ef2b560491883a411b710957
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 0c | 50,754$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…10fdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 12cpaid | +2,066.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…ff13backed Yes | 1c | 2,076$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 36c | 480.26$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.21 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 312.85$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7539…2719backed Yes | 47c | 235.28$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 74c | 220.62$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…35f2backed No | 75c | 216.32$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 198.59$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 186.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 186$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 181.62$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 169.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked No | 69c | 160.88$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 146$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f68…c408backed No | 77c | 144.26$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 66c | 141.57$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 111.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 110.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 98.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 40c | 97.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d6…8e5cbacked No | 76c | 93.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 38c | 92.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 92.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 65c | 88.84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 38c | 79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 78.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 28c | 74.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 69.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 22c | 67.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 64.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 33c | 60.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 27c | 59.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 68c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…d079backed Yes | 36c | 57.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 56.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 55.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 25c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53db…480ebacked No | 50c | 53.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 37c | 53.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…d119backed Yes | 44c | 51.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 41c | 50.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…ce36backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 57c | 49.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed No | 53c | 47.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 47.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x892d…3270backed Yes | 26c | 46.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…d397backed No | 78c | 44.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 28c | 44.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 44c | 41.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 79c | 34.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 37c | 32.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…d60dbacked Yes | 38c | 31.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x704e…46d9backed No | 73c | 28.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 27.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 68c | 27.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 68c | 27.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 73c | 27.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 65c | 26.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 67c | 26.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9576…8548backed No | 74c | 25.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 64c | 25.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 25.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 63c | 22.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 50c | 21.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…7e54backed No | 62c | 21.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 70c | 20.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 52c | 20.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…9a38backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 63c | 17.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 79c | 14.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C or below on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.