Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22c32fd4be5b2ca2f930df3bb42bb3f685c7e3db9733850888bac0b88123a459
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f68…c408backed No | 19c | 642.02$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 5c | 453.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 15c | 406.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 351.16$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 15c | 350$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb20e…f066backed No | 6c | 341.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 330$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.96 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 274.22$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 246.89$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.43 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 216.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 215$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.61 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 40c | 188.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.37 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 170.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.96 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 31c | 161.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 70c | 154.41$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 35c | 141.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.38 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 137.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 130.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…f3c2backed Yes | 77c | 129.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 127.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…ff13backed Yes | 72c | 127.85$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 120.03$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 22c | 113.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.62 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d6…8e5cbacked No | 35c | 112.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 32c | 110$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 12c | 105.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed No | 11c | 105.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 16c | 103.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 97.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 31c | 96.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.37 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 80c | 94.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 21c | 80.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 36c | 78.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 77.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed No | 27c | 77.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 65c | 76.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 22c | 68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 30c | 64.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…9a38backed No | 29c | 56.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 70c | 52.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 24c | 51.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 28c | 47.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08e…c1e3backed Yes | 27c | 46.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 45.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…d119backed Yes | 79c | 44.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 70c | 42.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 28c | 42.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 69c | 40.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 71c | 35.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 37c | 33.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 75c | 33.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 32.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…d397backed No | 71c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…c63cbacked No | 70c | 30.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…707fbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 80c | 25.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 66c | 23.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 21.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa162…b0ffbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 51c | 19.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 72c | 17.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 70c | 16.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 65c | 16.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 77c | 15.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C or below on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.