Tennis · resolved market
ITF Brisbane: Chia Yi Tsao vs Natsuho Arakawa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf4f5894cdf49403319ac8774d93f6199edd9c6e0c5e6106915c73722a16a894
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natsuho Arakawaof Chia Yi Tsao, Natsuho Arakawa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chia Yi Tsao | 65c | 3,117$2,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,036.06 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 35c | 2,039$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.99 | 2,776 | 53.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L | +69.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef53…4591backed Natsuho Arakawa | 7c | 1,461$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.85 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Natsuho Arakawa | 7c | 1,281$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.77 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf983…39a0backed Natsuho Arakawa | 12c | 1,163$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.61 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…1a16backed Natsuho Arakawa | 42c | 782.62$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.51 | 355 | 50.7%180 W · 175 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 52c | 630.12$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.6 | 643 | 65.9%424 W · 219 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…f2abbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 44c | 450.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.23 | 433 | 34.9%151 W · 282 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Natsuho Arakawa | 9c | 319.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.07 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…b22cbacked Chia Yi Tsao | 33c | 317.52$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.71 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Natsuho Arakawa | 37c | 306.07$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.07 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Chia Yi Tsao | 54c | 293.76$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.34 | 1,730 | 52.2%903 W · 827 L | -8.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Natsuho Arakawa | 32c | 286.5$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.82 | 1,785 | 48.7%869 W · 916 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Chia Yi Tsao | 58c | 236.74$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.13 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a1…1227backed Natsuho Arakawa | 46c | 218.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.82 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa11…650bbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chia Yi Tsao | 76c | 154.11$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.12 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…1c91backed Chia Yi Tsao | 65c | 153.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 203 | 60.1%122 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Natsuho Arakawa | 35c | 146.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.42 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 1,000 | 49.8%498 W · 502 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked Chia Yi Tsao | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 228 | 46.5%106 W · 122 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…147fbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 16c | 89.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Natsuho Arakawa | 14c | 84.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 249 | 28.9%72 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 37c | 79.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 721 | 47.3%341 W · 380 L | -18.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Chia Yi Tsao | 71c | 78.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…0123backed Natsuho Arakawa | 35c | 76.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Natsuho Arakawa | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 217 | 45.2%98 W · 119 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd928…705fbacked Chia Yi Tsao | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 297 | 52.9%157 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Chia Yi Tsao | 54c | 67.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 602 | 41.2%248 W · 354 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Natsuho Arakawa | 49c | 65.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1e…4754backed Natsuho Arakawa | 49c | 49.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 441 | 44.7%197 W · 244 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Natsuho Arakawa | 56c | 46.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 429 | 51.3%220 W · 209 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Chia Yi Tsao | 71c | 45.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…72bcbacked Chia Yi Tsao | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 553 | 57.3%317 W · 236 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Chia Yi Tsao | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Natsuho Arakawa | 38c | 38.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Chia Yi Tsao | 41c | 27.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 397 | 51.4%204 W · 193 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x822c…a06abacked Chia Yi Tsao | 79c | 25.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 74cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf04…6bf7backed Chia Yi Tsao | 68c | 24.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -6.3wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -57%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…91cdbacked Chia Yi Tsao | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 327 | 55%180 W · 147 L | +15.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…189abacked Chia Yi Tsao | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Chia Yi Tsao | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19f…8d44backed Chia Yi Tsao | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9af…359cbacked Chia Yi Tsao | 53c | 19.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 524 | 57.3%300 W · 224 L | +29.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…d7b5backed Chia Yi Tsao | 58c | 17.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 525 | 52.4%275 W · 250 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…441fbacked Chia Yi Tsao | 72c | 16.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.