Euroleague · resolved market
Shanxi Loongs vs. Beijing Ducks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf6151d1ee1efafd9b631af921d3b179d4d7e3b4ec6ad67c4f4d3cd4526ce571
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Beijing Ducksof Shanxi Loongs, Beijing Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Shanxi Loongs | 48c | 5,999$2,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,878.06 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Beijing Ducks | 58c | 4,965$2,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,106.02 | 316 | 51.6%163 W · 153 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Beijing Ducks | 30c | 2,694$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,888.18 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Beijing Ducks | 59c | 2,668$1,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.09 | 181 | 44.2%80 W · 101 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Beijing Ducks | 59c | 1,756$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.83 | 265 | 44.5%118 W · 147 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea1…9569backed Shanxi Loongs | 67c | 1,701$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Beijing Ducks | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.99 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a5…f0a8backed Shanxi Loongs | 65c | 1,472$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Beijing Ducks | 37c | 1,018$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.34 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +10.8wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Beijing Ducks | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Beijing Ducks | 41c | 971.18$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.18 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d6…0550backed Shanxi Loongs | 60c | 905.83$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Beijing Ducks | 62c | 801.97$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.97 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Shanxi Loongs | 53c | 765.07$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.57 | 435 | 43.7%190 W · 245 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Shanxi Loongs | 63c | 564.4$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.1 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -7.9wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Beijing Ducks | 57c | 556.1$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.04 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Shanxi Loongs | 67c | 548.47$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.76 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…6d0fbacked Beijing Ducks | 38c | 513.78$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.65 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Shanxi Loongs | 40c | 380.28$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.91 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Beijing Ducks | 30c | 334.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.67 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Beijing Ducks | 36c | 299.95$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.47 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8d…41bbbacked Shanxi Loongs | 62c | 285.53$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1d…8986backed Beijing Ducks | 37c | 257.86$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.51 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Shanxi Loongs | 33c | 256.16$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Shanxi Loongs | 28c | 240.16$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ec…bc09backed Beijing Ducks | 43c | 240$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Beijing Ducks | 33c | 239.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…9073backed Shanxi Loongs | 57c | 238$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…07f8backed Shanxi Loongs | 57c | 237$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Shanxi Loongs | 57c | 234.98$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.94 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x887d…fd0cbacked Beijing Ducks | 43c | 234.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Beijing Ducks | 47c | 208.8$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.11 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…e5d1backed Shanxi Loongs | 36c | 184.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Beijing Ducks | 59c | 177.86$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Shanxi Loongs | 62c | 160.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Shanxi Loongs | 66c | 151.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Shanxi Loongs | 66c | 145.22$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 314 | 46.2%145 W · 169 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3c…0696backed Beijing Ducks | 77c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Shanxi Loongs | 72c | 90$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Shanxi Loongs | 65c | 89.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Shanxi Loongs | 63c | 79.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b96…f098backed Beijing Ducks | 49c | 67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…4985backed Beijing Ducks | 31c | 64.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Shanxi Loongs | 68c | 61.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 343 | 44.3%152 W · 191 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d1…074bbacked Shanxi Loongs | 49c | 60.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Beijing Ducks | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Beijing Ducks | 31c | 45.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…8c81backed Beijing Ducks | 31c | 45.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Beijing Ducks | 33c | 43.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 85 | 34.1%29 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…899bbacked Shanxi Loongs | 28c | 43.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 209 | 36.4%76 W · 133 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…883fbacked Beijing Ducks | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc297…b0d2backed Shanxi Loongs | 64c | 35.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Shanxi Loongs | 73c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Shanxi Loongs | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4cc0backed Shanxi Loongs | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c79…ea52backed Shanxi Loongs | 67c | 29.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Shanxi Loongs | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ed…86ddbacked Shanxi Loongs | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7b…f474backed Shanxi Loongs | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e7…3182backed Shanxi Loongs | 70c | 18.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Shanxi Loongs | 65c | 16.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x612e…8427backed Shanxi Loongs | 64c | 15.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.