NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf7e934c11c90bcc81160f6f5a516c85347604635501a9b70f29cf6ca6289dfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chiefsof Chiefs, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Raiders | 44c | 6,343$2,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,790.8 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Raiders | 44c | 4,524$2,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,005.71 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Chiefs | 56c | 3,640$2,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601.6 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chiefs | 55c | 2,981$1,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.8 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a5…fe70backed Chiefs | 55c | 1,804$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Raiders | 46c | 1,643$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.97 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Chiefs | 54c | 1,550$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.6 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Chiefs | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Raiders | 45c | 999.99$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Chiefs | 56c | 982.14$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.14 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Raiders | 44c | 645.1$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.71 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Raiders | 44c | 462.71$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.59 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Chiefs | 53c | 333$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.51 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f7…fb38backed Chiefs | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Raiders | 46c | 235$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Chiefs | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Raiders | 45c | 141.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Chiefs | 56c | 135.82$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Chiefs | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Chiefs | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Chiefs | 55c | 53.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Raiders | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa304…9311backed Chiefs | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Chiefs | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb3…5874backed Chiefs | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Chiefs | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)this page
- Raiders vs. ChiefsChiefs won
- Raiders vs. Chiefs: O/U 44.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Chiefs: O/U 45.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Chiefs: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-11.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Chiefs (-12.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Chiefs (-13.5)Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.