NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chiefs (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e6920bd39ca0ae6d0e6f5fa4f18c5bf81805d60ce27f081d88461ba1f9c5b16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chiefsof Chiefs, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Chiefs | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,600 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Raiders | 48c | 19,453$9,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,337.5 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Chiefs | 51c | 18,578$9,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,066.97 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Raiders | 49c | 10,841$5,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,310.96 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raiders | 48c | 4,581$2,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,198.85 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Raiders | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.09 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Raiders | 49c | 1,520$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.04 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raiders | 48c | 546.88$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Raiders | 50c | 470$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 117 | 40.2%47 W · 70 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Raiders | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed Chiefs | 51c | 382.35$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.35 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Chiefs | 51c | 350.66$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.59 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Chiefs | 51c | 278$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.22 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Chiefs | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Raiders | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35de…b39abacked Raiders | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Chiefs | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Chiefs | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Raiders | 48c | 111$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Chiefs | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Chiefs | 52c | 78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Raiders | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…fd74backed Chiefs | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Chiefs | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chiefs (-11.5)this page
- Raiders vs. ChiefsChiefs won
- Raiders vs. Chiefs: O/U 44.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Chiefs: O/U 45.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Chiefs: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Chiefs (-12.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Chiefs (-13.5)Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.