NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chiefs (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f1de69bcd29ad37380a8555b501ba9a40c7ba5a57993bfafcd6c28422d9576d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chiefsof Chiefs, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Chiefs | 51c | 32,310$16,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,732.88 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Raiders | 48c | 13,000$6,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,239.99 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Raiders | 48c | 11,466$5,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,503.64 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Raiders | 48c | 11,000$5,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,280 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Chiefs | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Raiders | 50c | 6,644$3,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,301.37 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Chiefs | 50c | 5,208$2,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,604 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Raiders | 52c | 4,154$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Raiders | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b65…f5d9backed Raiders | 51c | 3,516$1,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,793.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…6ae7backed Chiefs | 49c | 3,516$1,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,793.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c81…e258backed Chiefs | 50c | 2,933$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.92 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Raiders | 49c | 2,750$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.5 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Raiders | 48c | 2,646$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.87 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Chiefs | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Raiders | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…8913backed Raiders | 48c | 1,906$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…adbebacked Raiders | 51c | 1,788$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c3…56debacked Chiefs | 49c | 1,788$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Raiders | 49c | 1,475$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.82 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Raiders | 50c | 1,450$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.2 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Raiders | 48c | 1,397$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.63 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Chiefs | 48c | 1,344$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.89 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Raiders | 52c | 1,042$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Raiders | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Raiders | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Raiders | 50c | 789.85$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.26 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raiders | 50c | 755.08$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.54 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Chiefs | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…9b23backed Raiders | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Chiefs | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Raiders | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Chiefs | 55c | 480$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Chiefs | 52c | 368.42$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.84 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Chiefs | 48c | 312.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.49 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raiders | 50c | 281$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Chiefs | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Chiefs | 48c | 199.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked Raiders | 52c | 192.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Raiders | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Raiders | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe6…2770backed Raiders | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9423backed Raiders | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 104 | 67.3%70 W · 34 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Raiders | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -12.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Raiders | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 284 | 33.1%94 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55f1…e715backed Raiders | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9946…a04ebacked Chiefs | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7942backed Chiefs | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Raiders | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Raiders | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0804…049dbacked Raiders | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Chiefs | 49c | 65.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Raiders | 49c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf998…7b41backed Raiders | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Raiders | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Raiders | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Raiders | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0488…aea5backed Raiders | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Raiders | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e4…3fd9backed Chiefs | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Raiders | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…7b68backed Chiefs | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Chiefs | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chiefs (-12.5)this page
- Raiders vs. ChiefsChiefs won
- Raiders vs. Chiefs: O/U 44.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Chiefs: O/U 45.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Chiefs: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Chiefs (-11.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Chiefs (-13.5)Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.