Middle East · resolved market
Another Israeli military action against Iran before the election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafbc04fc2f2b86a80436c52ac5dd2cba8dfa1b488be732a28b562e27b7261ef4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $167,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $161,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 7c | 6,615$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.29 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 5c | 5,550$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.88 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,808$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 5c | 4,730$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.7 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…1786backed Yes | 18c | 4,294$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 25c | 3,675$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.51 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 4c | 3,457$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.26 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…8db9backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc04e…237cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,570$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.27 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…f0bdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,341$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ec…ce12backed Yes | 7c | 2,195$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -63%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe215…c8afbacked Yes | 5c | 2,100$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…fa31backed Yes | 6c | 1,890$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2f11backed Yes | 4c | 1,800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…23d7backed Yes | 10c | 1,796$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 6c | 1,750$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13b2…3ca2backed Yes | 4c | 1,724$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 74c | 1,665$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.53 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,622$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,547$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf49b…add9backed Yes | 7c | 1,518$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa4…32c7backed Yes | 6c | 1,516$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9b…3e1dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,513$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 7c | 1,138$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.58 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…3c34backed Yes | 5c | 1,063$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 3c | 1,016$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f6…275bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 6c | 970$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…948abacked Yes | 4c | 927.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…fd07backed Yes | 13c | 923.36$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.35 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 5c | 900$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 4c | 865.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 7c | 856$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…6498backed Yes | 6c | 825$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 4c | 816.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…6d94backed Yes | 6c | 702.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes | 5c | 684.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…7696backed Yes | 6c | 634.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +291.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x469b…7e0ebacked Yes | 19c | 524.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…d1c9backed Yes | 8c | 520.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 5c | 499$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a63…2eb3backed Yes | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x624c…cdc7backed Yes | 4c | 395.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 5c | 376.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…7c5cbacked Yes | 9c | 369.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…804dbacked Yes | 8c | 326.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c91…edd8backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 276.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df9…0780backed Yes | 9c | 268.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25da…c4b8backed Yes | 4c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 6c | 250$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4a…3f1cbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88cb…9ed1backed Yes | 8c | 245.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda72…1e2ebacked Yes | 8c | 242.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ea…1088backed Yes | 11c | 240$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -69%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d11…6645backed Yes | 4c | 239.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c60…45b8backed Yes | 7c | 220.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa7…ec40backed Yes | 6c | 216.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed Yes | 6c | 208.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e59…c2d5backed Yes | 10c | 155.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 59c | 145.8$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 10c | 118.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbafd…114abacked Yes | 10c | 104.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3e…d02abacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a9…f39bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked No | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0255…96ccbacked Yes | 17c | 69.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…2179backed No | 74c | 35.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.