Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Nagoya Grampus end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafc07a7c9b3ad520ac3ba817edb6e063a9bce0cc8421d487e67795a35a51b5f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 45c | 6,128$2,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,760.99 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24f…d0a8backed Yes | 38c | 2,811$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,742.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 72c | 2,778$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.78 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked No | 57c | 1,385$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.45 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Yes | 66c | 1,102$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.4 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…e900backed No | 34c | 1,055$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.29 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked No | 11c | 999.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 39c | 966.16$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.49 | 119 | 31.9%38 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 66c | 940.51$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.38 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 60c | 837.05$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.82 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 8c | 831.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 40c | 740$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.86 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 57c | 644.33$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.74 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 40c | 600$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 285 | 32.3%92 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 7c | 566.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 539.29$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.9 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 5c | 511$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 21c | 504.94$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.14 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 3c | 415$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 9c | 338$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 585 | 42.7%250 W · 335 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed No | 11c | 280.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 5c | 252.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 271 | 48%130 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -9.6wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 190 | 48.4%92 W · 98 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 17c | 141.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 51c | 118.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…8a9bbacked No | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…3456backed No | 48c | 104.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 43c | 76.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0195…9f64backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 51c | 64.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 53c | 57.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Yes | 55c | 54.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 60c | 51.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…c8a8backed No | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 71c | 35.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…2af5backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6afc…5d32backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1928…1171backed Yes | 78c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…7d0fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab35…118dbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked No | 61c | 16.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Nagoya Grampus end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-06-06?No won
- Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-06-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.