Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafc85ad378854fcf6f3bb5ed385a8663a063184a4f747c625e78fd6e8b3a7b90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 37c | 220.41$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 203.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 176.67$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 62c | 172.85$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 163$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 148.69$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 66c | 144.37$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 144.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 60c | 137.16$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 134.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.27 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 40c | 134.35$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 60c | 124.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 37c | 123.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 109.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 108.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 68c | 107.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…5ec9backed No | 73c | 96.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 78.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 35c | 67.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 65.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 44c | 59.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd79…989ebacked No | 67c | 54.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 73c | 54.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…3a8bbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 46.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 43.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 47c | 42.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 40.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 75c | 39.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 63c | 38.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 37.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 74c | 36.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 62c | 36.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…0b47backed Yes | 61c | 33.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 64c | 32.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 61c | 29.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…6d71backed No | 53c | 27.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 45c | 26.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 39c | 26.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 25.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…49b7backed Yes | 80c | 25.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 64c | 25.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 62c | 25.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 42c | 24.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 46c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9184…67bbbacked Yes | 77c | 22.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 62c | 20.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 68c | 19.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 71c | 18.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked Yes | 64c | 16.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 69c | 14.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.