Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x148f3fd568121f31829dc79c061bd1b430d9b1fbf97e4c243d732bb03739f83e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 49c | 1,101$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.01 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 28c | 479.8$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.33 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 54c | 453.17$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.18 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 45c | 415.69$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.47 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 307.62$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.13 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 20c | 289.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 289$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 54c | 283.39$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.21 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 73c | 279.91$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 6c | 278.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.1 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 266.08$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 224.2$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.45 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 215.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…4897backed Yes | 71c | 210.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.47 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…8fcabacked Yes | 63c | 194.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.48 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 42c | 181$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.96 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 40c | 170.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 7c | 161.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.45 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 148.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 37c | 144.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 133.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 70c | 106$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 24c | 97.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.82 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 27c | 87.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 70c | 85.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 25c | 83.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 55c | 80.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 80c | 75.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…a198backed Yes | 68c | 73.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 65.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 65.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf569…a8bbbacked Yes | 48c | 62.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 61.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 73c | 58.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 59c | 56.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 31c | 54.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…3a8bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 49c | 47.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 73c | 45.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed No | 72c | 43.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed Yes | 50c | 43.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 42.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 32c | 42.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 80c | 36.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…4e16backed No | 72c | 34.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 36c | 31.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…7260backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 67c | 27.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…75b5backed Yes | 79c | 26.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 65c | 25.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 75c | 25.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c3…eccfbacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcecc…1568backed Yes | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 43c | 24.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…459cbacked Yes | 43c | 23.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8977…dce4backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…0f3ebacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…94aebacked No | 79c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 73c | 15.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 77c | 13.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8917…be6fbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.