NHL · resolved market
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb03c648a44421b63e1321242ff481887507b81d654b801c8b81c8fd14a302107
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8da…e38bbacked Under | 55c | 23,636$13,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,000.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1d…7ec7backed Over | 45c | 22,960$10,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,628 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7527…0ce5backed Over | 45c | 22,785$10,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,531.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11bd…e68fbacked Under | 55c | 22,112$12,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,161.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 55c | 5,000$2,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,747.94 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 54c | 2,709$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.43 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 2,583$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.34 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 2,553$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.65 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 46c | 1,522$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.74 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 665.74$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.71 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 54c | 663$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.48 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60f…9ea3backed Under | 56c | 580.36$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Under | 33c | 518$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.74 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 45c | 468$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.4 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Over | 46c | 436.28$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.28 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 48c | 415.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.29 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 45c | 406$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.3 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 52c | 315.67$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.15 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Under | 52c | 271$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.92 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 45c | 177$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 56c | 175$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 59c | 146$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.14 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6b…b068backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 45c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 41c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 48c | 27.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…e6cdbacked Under | 54c | 19.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5this page
- Blackhawks vs. Golden KnightsGolden Knights won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Blackhawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.