Mls · resolved market
Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb056d5c866056dbbb8760993dea22f98728b9e6ab9cf40b8b6f482cbc2d6c452
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77fe…a351backed Yes | 0c | 70,984$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 16c | 7,332$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.98 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 24c | 6,219$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.98 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 20c | 3,509$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.77 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 7c | 2,473$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.98 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf958…31b3backed Yes | 19c | 2,105$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 12c | 1,937$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.46 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 19c | 1,626$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.85 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed Yes | 27c | 1,396$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 26c | 915$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.23 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 80c | 468$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 80c | 468$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 80c | 468$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 76c | 384.13$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Yes | 20c | 215$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 19c | 179.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 106 | 12.3%13 W · 93 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…210ebacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 19c | 166$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 148.74$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 8c | 134.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…0d5bbacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 109.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 19c | 105.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…147abacked Yes | 24c | 104.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…83a6backed Yes | 21c | 96.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd9…8593backed Yes | 20c | 88.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b2…bdc4backed Yes | 28c | 86.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ce…3633backed No | 77c | 60.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebe…72f2backed Yes | 26c | 53.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed No | 80c | 50.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 79cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…0979backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52bb…2063backed Yes | 25c | 44.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 79c | 42.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 80c | 39.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…d369backed No | 77c | 36.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x856e…bd31backed No | 78c | 34.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed No | 79c | 25.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 80c | 25.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 78c | 23.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…5320backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…4576backed No | 77c | 18.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 71c | 14.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?this page
- Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-07-16?Yes won
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-07-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.