Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0791824d64d6312b561f276c55ccf8b2decc92fe0524579e59503149928a04a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 77c | 1,345$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.66 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 60c | 837.47$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 504.28$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.41 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 54c | 344.83$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 225.72$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 46c | 220.96$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.64 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 41c | 166.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 43c | 165.75$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 129.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 58c | 118$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 55c | 116.46$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 43c | 111.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe240…7cb3backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 39c | 98.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 54c | 85.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 41c | 79.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 44c | 78.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 63c | 78.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 52c | 77.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 35c | 77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 57c | 76.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 38c | 67.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 39c | 61.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 36c | 57.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 37c | 49.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 44c | 49.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 42c | 47.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked No | 36c | 45.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 49c | 44.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 39c | 43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 44c | 42.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 42c | 40.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 46c | 40.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 37c | 40.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 45c | 38.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 67c | 37.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 37.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 40c | 35.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 42c | 35.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 54c | 32.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 60c | 32.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 47c | 31.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 42c | 28.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 40c | 25.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed Yes | 57c | 24.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 68c | 20.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.