Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe207844a090b12d1d27deb578af8f4d291b08780874af270dda05d8d5344fcb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf98b…6a1abacked Yes | 2c | 8,954$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 678.18$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 39c | 616.23$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.99 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 41c | 521.44$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.48 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 49c | 502.47$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.08 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 480.46$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 47c | 379.44$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.63 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked No | 65c | 309.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.71 | 42 | 83.3%35 W · 7 L | +11.6wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 38c | 293.28$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.02 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 28c | 261.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 39c | 259.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 231.65$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 48c | 230.34$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 225.69$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 20c | 210$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.01 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 166.51$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 165.75$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 133.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 31c | 121.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 109.77$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 107.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 98.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 38c | 92.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 58c | 90.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 63.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 36c | 62.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 59c | 54.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 37c | 54.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 48.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 56c | 48.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 39c | 47.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e1…c6f3backed No | 64c | 47.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 59c | 46.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 46.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 62c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 42c | 44.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 69c | 44.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 29c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 74c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 48c | 38.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 80c | 37.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 53c | 35.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 63c | 34.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 34.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 76c | 31.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 32c | 30.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 30.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 62c | 28.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 45c | 28.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 27.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked Yes | 45c | 26.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed Yes | 47c | 25.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed No | 59c | 23.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 53c | 22.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 58c | 20.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b6…7e4ebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 72c | 18.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 71c | 17.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fef…ee82backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.