Lol · resolved market

Games Total: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0dca3d02ed40989b3c46b9487d5104ddb180f8e484dde6a271e70a038450a43

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $18,567
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $20,335

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,567 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Lol
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8627…5382backed Under	63c	5,000$3,150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,149.98	223	55.2%123 W · 100 L	+8.7wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Over	41c	2,654$1,101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,552.63	706	41.5%293 W · 413 L	-17.0wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-22%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Under	62c	2,407$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	225	47.6%107 W · 118 L	-11.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Over	37c	1,811$673 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,138.2	343	51.3%176 W · 167 L	+10.6wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabd3…6635backed Over	49c	813.86$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$413.86	78	39.7%31 W · 47 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03c6…3dd2backed Under	64c	781.25$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+1.9wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	47c	632.81$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$332.98	2,540	39.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L	-79.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Under	54c	631.79$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.66	2,984	44.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L	-94.6wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Over	42c	609.25$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$354.16	1,004	54.5%547 W · 457 L	+49.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x559b…4959backed Over	36c	509.2$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$325.03	236	45.3%107 W · 129 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Over	38c	503.81$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$314.85	248	32.3%80 W · 168 L	-11.7wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Over	38c	486.93$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$302.42	704	43.9%309 W · 395 L	-15.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ab5…db66backed Over	41c	458.66$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.66	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over	56c	400$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176	2,521	47.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L	-34.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Over	40c	348.21$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$207.82	314	39.8%125 W · 189 L	-16.9wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Over	39c	322.76$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.66	347	42.1%146 W · 201 L	-13.1wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Over	39c	262.81$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.31	386	40.4%156 W · 230 L	-17.7wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12d3…42e4backed Over	39c	208.87$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.37	266	41%109 W · 157 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23b5…97e1backed Under	41c	180$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.8	269	39%105 W · 164 L	-8.6wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58de…9169backed Over	41c	154.99$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.49	79	44.3%35 W · 44 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Under	49c	132.94$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.1	2,020	30.5%617 W · 1,403 L	-172.4wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over	39c	129.99$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.3	373	43.4%162 W · 211 L	-15.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Under	66c	126.21$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.91	874	43.1%377 W · 497 L	-9.7wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd207…c366backed Under	63c	125.48$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79	108	47.2%51 W · 57 L	-8.9wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd413…f862backed Over	38c	123.28$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.4	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.11per pick	47cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Under	66c	121.22$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.92	1,181	66%780 W · 401 L	+70.1wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Under	48c	105$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.35	421	37.5%158 W · 263 L	-9.5wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under	58c	91$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.62	1,476	43.6%643 W · 833 L	-31.3wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked Under	21c	88$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.36	389	31.9%124 W · 265 L	-14.5wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under	31c	86.08$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.28	1,608	17.5%282 W · 1,326 L	-245.3wins	-0.15per pick	33cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3a1e…5bb5backed Under	54c	82.51$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.55	117	52.1%61 W · 56 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7049…85a5backed Under	41c	58$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.78	226	39.4%89 W · 137 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Over	27c	55.21$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.03	257	37%95 W · 162 L	-12.7wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over	38c	50$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31	619	46.5%288 W · 331 L	-5.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60d0…03c1backed Over	42c	46.12$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.8	58	55.2%32 W · 26 L	+5.0wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under	56c	44.87$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.09	2,237	33.3%745 W · 1,492 L	-71.3wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x864f…3ae7backed Over	34c	44.12$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.12	67	44.8%30 W · 37 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd961…35debacked Over	28c	44.11$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.76	324	42%136 W · 188 L	+7.6wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedab…8926backed Over	59c	40$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.4	393	52.4%206 W · 187 L	-9.2wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd6b…e0f3backed Over	41c	37.63$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.2	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked Over	37c	36.49$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.96	141	42.6%60 W · 81 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Under	58c	36.12$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.95	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-3.7wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x981f…b63fbacked Under	63c	31.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	170	47.1%80 W · 90 L	-12.3wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7aa7…afb4backed Under	42c	27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.23	96	55.2%53 W · 43 L	+4.6wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed Under	64c	21.84$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.98	56	48.2%27 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-12%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cf1…d7febacked Under	60c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	123	35.8%44 W · 79 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x465b…41c3backed Under	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	123	47.2%58 W · 65 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc399…53abbacked Under	65c	19.12$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.42	79	38%30 W · 49 L	-9.0wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-34%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
First Blood in Game 1?ThunderTalk Gaming won
First Blood in Game 2?Top Esports won
Game 3: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?Yes won
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)ThunderTalk Gaming won
LoL: Top Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendTop Esports won
LoL: Top Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 WinnerTop Esports won
LoL: Top Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 WinnerThunderTalk Gaming won
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Over won
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Over won
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Games Total: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event