Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ac86eaa95ef34a5fad82c71261ab5819b33fb4e0e8499be8e2f8057a7c2dbca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 49c | 734.98$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.94 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 45c | 642.06$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.1 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Over | 53c | 552.13$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.5 | 1,308 | 38.6%505 W · 803 L | -64.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90e7…ac8ebacked Over | 51c | 436.27$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.77 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed Over | 55c | 434.37$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.48 | 1,110 | 49%544 W · 566 L | +42.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e3…b615backed Over | 59c | 210.17$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.17 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Under | 41c | 199.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 961 | 49.9%480 W · 481 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed Under | 51c | 122.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 166 | 54.2%90 W · 76 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x591d…f4dfbacked Over | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf67…6842backed Under | 43c | 117.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 41c | 103.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Over | 58c | 86.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 161 | 50.9%82 W · 79 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 44c | 70.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 417 | 49.2%205 W · 212 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…27d9backed Over | 58c | 67.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 396 | 52%206 W · 190 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fc…5dafbacked Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Under | 42c | 47.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 840 | 41%344 W · 496 L | -38.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Over | 52c | 44.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…b713backed Under | 48c | 41.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa7…8332backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked Over | 51c | 37.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 245 | 35.9%88 W · 157 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134d…b07bbacked Over | 56c | 36.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 102 | 31.4%32 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…8b25backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…e04fbacked Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed Over | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 393 | 52.4%206 W · 187 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 49c | 24.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 373 | 43.4%162 W · 211 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35ba…4390backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4068…673ebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eac…de53backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7488…9cfbbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…0cf9backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?this page
- First Blood in Game 1?ThunderTalk Gaming won
- First Blood in Game 2?Top Esports won
- Game 3: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?Yes won
- Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)ThunderTalk Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Top Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendTop Esports won
- LoL: Top Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 WinnerTop Esports won
- LoL: Top Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 WinnerThunderTalk Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.