Tennis · resolved market
Lugano: Murphy Cassone vs Petr Nesterov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb10a5368df95a80d34e57f80d30cb7555e1c443c800b98f2d70053a5c3f1fd77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nesterovof Cassone, Nesterov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Cassone | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 108 | 15.7%17 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +248.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cassone | 42c | 3,251$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.83 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd9…544abacked Cassone | 66c | 2,273$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 201 | 55.7%112 W · 89 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Nesterov | 48c | 2,133$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.92 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Nesterov | 56c | 1,441$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.47 | 757 | 48.6%368 W · 389 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nesterov | 54c | 1,230$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.9 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cassone | 60c | 992.7$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.98 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Nesterov | 63c | 902.09$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.92 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf74d…9930backed Cassone | 76c | 528.32$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 261 | 58.2%152 W · 109 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Nesterov | 38c | 440$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.81 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Nesterov | 51c | 409.67$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.67 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Cassone | 58c | 408$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.62 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed0…dd5ebacked Cassone | 55c | 371.51$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.93 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Nesterov | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Nesterov | 24c | 250$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Cassone | 55c | 230.81$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.02 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…6323backed Cassone | 64c | 213.89$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.89 | 102 | 67.6%69 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Nesterov | 35c | 190.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.94 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8f…d351backed Nesterov | 27c | 187.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.19 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cassone | 68c | 155.86$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.14 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…b4b3backed Nesterov | 29c | 120.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cassone | 58c | 110.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Cassone | 53c | 109.22$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Nesterov | 37c | 105.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Nesterov | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 248 | 26.2%65 W · 183 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Cassone | 59c | 76.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Cassone | 61c | 73.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cassone | 58c | 59.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Cassone | 52c | 56.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Cassone | 75c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Nesterov | 25c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 968 | 44.4%430 W · 538 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Cassone | 56c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf337…609abacked Nesterov | 34c | 46.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Cassone | 79c | 45.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 290 | 63.8%185 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1c…94d3backed Nesterov | 29c | 34.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…4dd4backed Cassone | 58c | 32.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Cassone | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Cassone | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 302 | 54.3%164 W · 138 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…d240backed Cassone | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 169 | 59.2%100 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cassone | 64c | 29.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Nesterov | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Cassone | 58c | 23.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 341 | 49.9%170 W · 171 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Cassone | 77c | 22.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…5bb0backed Cassone | 77c | 20.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…a896backed Cassone | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f01…1627backed Cassone | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Cassone | 61c | 16.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 129 | 58.1%75 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.