Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1219d5f8a3e8d14e0e9b8a0450c90879f579a3375d503dd9d8000120c224e59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 37c | 536.04$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 489.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 37c | 225$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 200.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 169.98$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 68c | 145$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 67c | 128.96$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 124.49$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…8f13backed Yes | 39c | 122.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 121$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 71c | 111.82$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 109.72$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 109$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 43c | 106.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 37c | 105$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed No | 61c | 103.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 61c | 86.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 66c | 82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 78.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 77.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 59c | 67.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 66.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 61c | 66.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 62.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 32c | 62.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 61.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 61c | 61.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 38c | 53.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…ec92backed Yes | 30c | 49.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 34c | 44.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 43.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 70c | 42.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 41.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 36c | 41.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 68c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 70c | 38.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 33c | 35.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 35.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 55c | 32.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 31.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 58c | 27.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 58c | 22.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbd…f2c6backed No | 73c | 14.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.