Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37b0ff44b4522422b6d83c015b86e8599b62dafcb0e990460aa83597823c8e5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad53…541dbacked Yes | 54c | 491.7$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.18 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 42c | 380.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.77 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 59c | 352.8$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.75 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 349.99$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 19c | 268.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 226.8$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 178.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 62c | 166.05$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 56c | 159.59$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.61 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 113.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 66c | 110$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 55c | 107.25$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 106.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 102$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b2…697cbacked Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 41c | 92.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 45c | 91.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 54c | 90.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 58c | 85.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 38c | 83.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 64c | 82.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 59c | 82.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 64c | 78.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 51c | 77.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 15c | 77.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 34c | 73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 35c | 63.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 33c | 63.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 45c | 60.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 24c | 55.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 69c | 54.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 40c | 54.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 44c | 53.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 59c | 53.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 34c | 51.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 45c | 51.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 58c | 48.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 40c | 47.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 46.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 59c | 42.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 53c | 40.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 65c | 40.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 65c | 40.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 42c | 38.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 35c | 38.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 43c | 36.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 60c | 32.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 46c | 31.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 38c | 31.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 43c | 31.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 54c | 30.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 54c | 30.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 76c | 28.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 53c | 28.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 39c | 26.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 57c | 25.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…2a2abacked Yes | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe2…eb81backed Yes | 65c | 24.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 46c | 24.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…1b58backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…716dbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 56c | 18.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.