NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Pacers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1403171fb89579ffa973697f56906a23dcbb4709e29f68428be383af4d173bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Cavaliers, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Pacers | 52c | 12,229$6,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,926.91 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Cavaliers | 49c | 6,642$3,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,276.88 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Pacers | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,879.99 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Cavaliers | 47c | 3,473$1,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,631.22 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Cavaliers | 49c | 3,423$1,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,691.66 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Cavaliers | 48c | 2,615$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Cavaliers | 60c | 2,055$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.41 | 304 | 43.1%131 W · 173 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Cavaliers | 46c | 1,474$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.8 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…bb3fbacked Pacers | 46c | 1,125$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…6fc4backed Cavaliers | 54c | 1,125$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -75%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Pacers | 27c | 1,071$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.49 | 161 | 39.8%64 W · 97 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Pacers | 52c | 1,036$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.65 | 173 | 48.6%84 W · 89 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f35…0d0cbacked Pacers | 51c | 1,004$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Cavaliers | 14c | 1,004$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.22 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefca…5d11backed Cavaliers | 49c | 955$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x877b…4628backed Cavaliers | 49c | 945$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da7…9368backed Pacers | 51c | 896$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10e…8404backed Pacers | 47c | 893$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014a…8aefbacked Cavaliers | 53c | 893$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12d…d764backed Cavaliers | 50c | 720.86$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Cavaliers | 50c | 700.31$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Cavaliers | 39c | 606.3$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.03 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Pacers | 54c | 460.85$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.85 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Pacers | 17c | 454$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.82 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Cavaliers | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 721 | 1%7 W · 714 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0512…6f17backed Pacers | 54c | 264.14$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Cavaliers | 45c | 232.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.18 | 463 | 42.5%197 W · 266 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 225.2$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.63 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Cavaliers | 47c | 212.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Pacers | 21c | 212.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.96 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 893 | 53%473 W · 420 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Pacers | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Pacers | 51c | 196.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.73 | 160 | 42.5%68 W · 92 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…4c9fbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 182.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Pacers | 45c | 176.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.91 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked Cavaliers | 49c | 163.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Pacers | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 489 | 38.7%189 W · 300 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b1…3a8abacked Pacers | 50c | 145$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…b13cbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 145$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…51c6backed Cavaliers | 47c | 144.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8822…73e9backed Pacers | 50c | 143$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2955…91f4backed Cavaliers | 50c | 143$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…f88dbacked Cavaliers | 69c | 134.68$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Pacers | 39c | 116.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 169 | 19.5%33 W · 136 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Cavaliers | 41c | 106.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Cavaliers | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Pacers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3210…5c4ebacked Cavaliers | 68c | 92.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Pacers | 25c | 85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 667 | 32.4%216 W · 451 L | +41.8wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Pacers | 24c | 66.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 184 | 50.5%93 W · 91 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Pacers | 27c | 64.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Cavaliers | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 354 | 38.1%135 W · 219 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Cavaliers | 63c | 42.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 218 | 51.8%113 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…faa7backed Cavaliers | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Pacers | 34c | 40.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 285 | 48.4%138 W · 147 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…415ebacked Cavaliers | 46c | 39.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 316 | 31.6%100 W · 216 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb053…92c6backed Pacers | 50c | 38.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Pacers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…0539backed Pacers | 47c | 37.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…ad6abacked Cavaliers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7078…962fbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa332…730bbacked Pacers | 46c | 35.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad2…e215backed Pacers | 47c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Cavaliers | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b07…1ae5backed Cavaliers | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9169…a2e3backed Pacers | 48c | 27.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Cavaliers | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…424bbacked Pacers | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…8318backed Pacers | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Cavaliers | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd481…3b2fbacked Cavaliers | 61c | 24.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Pacers | 58c | 23.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 126 | 57.1%72 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…9801backed Cavaliers | 50c | 23.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb160…9681backed Pacers | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.