MLB · resolved market

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1410d939dbe4fabdf54669940a38f3ed296985deab03a80846ca7f56bcec807

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: New York Metsof New York Mets, Colorado Rockies
Resolved: May 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $10,926
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $11,639

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,926 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4488…e319backed New York Mets	49c	3,000$1,470 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,529.99	1,063	48.2%512 W · 551 L	-11.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Colorado Rockies	51c	2,220$1,132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,132.03	30	60%18 W · 12 L	+3.3wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Colorado Rockies	41c	2,001$829 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$829.47	2,293	48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L	-24.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets	53c	1,140$602 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$537.9	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18a6…c8d3backed New York Mets	69c	1,005$693 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$311.55	93	50.5%47 W · 46 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Colorado Rockies	54c	953.96$515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515.14	2,369	47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Colorado Rockies	51c	784.31$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	141	56%79 W · 62 L	+6.5wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Colorado Rockies	53c	565.32$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.62	577	44.7%258 W · 319 L	-6.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Colorado Rockies	53c	535$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.55	311	49.2%153 W · 158 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed New York Mets	49c	422.55$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$215.5	1,010	48.1%486 W · 524 L	-13.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked New York Mets	47c	400$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$212	228	48.2%110 W · 118 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked New York Mets	47c	361.1$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.38	1,769	51.6%912 W · 857 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed New York Mets	46c	352.05$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190.11	1,572	48.3%759 W · 813 L	-6.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0554…79b9backed New York Mets	47c	299.12$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.12	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Colorado Rockies	54c	277.78$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	1,708	49.9%852 W · 856 L	-17.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Colorado Rockies	51c	233.19$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	665	51.1%340 W · 325 L	-17.0wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e0…e2cbbacked New York Mets	46c	217.39$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.39	112	44.6%50 W · 62 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63f2…e0c9backed New York Mets	47c	213.75$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.35	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+2.9wins	+0.20per pick	54cpaid	+35.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe89b…be3abacked New York Mets	48c	208.46$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.46	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed Colorado Rockies	53c	187.85$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	308	44.2%136 W · 172 L	-10.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Colorado Rockies	51c	156.86$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	443	48.5%215 W · 228 L	-7.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies	51c	142.62$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.33	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed New York Mets	47c	127.66$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.66	481	50.7%244 W · 237 L	-19.3wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked New York Mets	48c	115.98$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.75	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Colorado Rockies	51c	107$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.57	34	64.7%22 W · 12 L	+5.3wins	+0.15per pick	49cpaid	+31%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8a0c…3d4dbacked New York Mets	50c	90.1$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.08	174	50.6%88 W · 86 L	-9.0wins	-0.05per pick	56cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Colorado Rockies	46c	87.65$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.74	997	44.1%440 W · 557 L	-38.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets	48c	82.65$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.97	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb81e…8ab9backed Colorado Rockies	51c	80$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.8	478	48.5%232 W · 246 L	-15.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed New York Mets	47c	79.99$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.39	689	42.2%291 W · 398 L	+18.7wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed New York Mets	48c	76$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.18	6,303	48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L	+181.4wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed New York Mets	47c	74.47$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.47	486	51%248 W · 238 L	-18.0wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Colorado Rockies	53c	74.01$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	466	59.7%278 W · 188 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Colorado Rockies	53c	70$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.1	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Colorado Rockies	23c	68.57$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.96	841	22.7%191 W · 650 L	-81.4wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets	46c	65.4$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.16	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked New York Mets	48c	62.99$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.76	722	47.6%344 W · 378 L	-12.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc78…f1f5backed New York Mets	47c	53.19$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.19	263	51.3%135 W · 128 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets	49c	45$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.95	1,661	43.5%722 W · 939 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Colorado Rockies	51c	43.14$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	205	51.7%106 W · 99 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed New York Mets	49c	40.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.74	2,945	47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50fd…ee77backed Colorado Rockies	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	330	51.8%171 W · 159 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c20…b66cbacked New York Mets	46c	32.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.61	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+36.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc96b…438abacked New York Mets	47c	31.91$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.91	274	52.6%144 W · 130 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x07c9…9f5bbacked Colorado Rockies	51c	31.37$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	316	50.6%160 W · 156 L	-4.6wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Colorado Rockies	52c	29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.08	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Colorado Rockies	50c	27.83$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.98	507	48.7%247 W · 260 L	-17.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Colorado Rockies	51c	27.45$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	899	50.6%455 W · 444 L	-24.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fcb…207cbacked New York Mets	52c	26.48$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.8	43	44.2%19 W · 24 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa820…2dcebacked Colorado Rockies	52c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	61	50.8%31 W · 30 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed New York Mets	56c	23.13$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.24	47	61.7%29 W · 18 L	+3.9wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed New York Mets	49c	22.45$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.45	3,832	42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Colorado Rockies	49c	22.44$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	82	39%32 W · 50 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
New York Mets vs. Colorado RockiesNew York Mets won
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5Under won
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Over won
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)New York Mets won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Colorado RockiesYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event