MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb16d4ce581c40e3a46ef14748990d7c37e98d8442f9d5675b9a2a3623735fdf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Houston Astros | 37c | 2,745$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,741.21 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked Houston Astros | 37c | 2,007$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.41 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 1,862$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.5 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 66c | 1,770$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.43 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 49c | 1,090$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros | 35c | 786.68$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.95 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 700$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 36c | 518.28$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.61 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Houston Astros | 32c | 462.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.06 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 456.05$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.87 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Houston Astros | 29c | 369.23$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.48 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 36c | 332.28$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.66 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…caa2backed Houston Astros | 37c | 285$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.45 | 98 | 28.6%28 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 258.35$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.7 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Washington Nationals | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 36c | 183.38$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.36 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…0dbbbacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc02d…92c1backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 151$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 125$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Houston Astros | 36c | 99.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Washington Nationals | 27c | 97.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Houston Astros | 35c | 91.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 88.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 76c | 88.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Houston Astros | 23c | 86.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Houston Astros | 58c | 84.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe574…9b3abacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a21…4aa9backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Houston Astros | 35c | 66.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Houston Astros | 77c | 64.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 78cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…75acbacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 465 | 46%214 W · 251 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 39c | 61.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Houston Astros | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Houston Astros | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Houston Astros | 37c | 47.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 33.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x786f…1dcdbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 32.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Houston Astros | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Washington Nationals | 74c | 18.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Washington NationalsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.