MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82ce40ba2254cfd1000177bf026b46af9cceee09e2ab7158dd77f0ad356f49db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Washington Nationals, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 7,409$2,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,793.25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…82c6backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 7,000$2,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,589.99 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 5,840$2,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,139.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 63c | 5,500$3,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,034.99 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Houston Astros | 62c | 2,585$1,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.3 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 63c | 2,414$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.62 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Houston Astros | 63c | 1,885$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.52 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 35c | 1,763$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 1,044$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.07 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 966$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.42 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Houston Astros | 63c | 800$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 604.89$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.71 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Washington Nationals | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 63c | 442.17$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.58 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02d…92c1backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 239.89$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.7 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 216.48$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 48c | 211.69$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Houston Astros | 63c | 137.27$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Washington Nationals | 37c | 131.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 114.07$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Houston Astros | 63c | 106$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 91.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Washington Nationals | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Houston Astros | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Houston Astros | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Houston Astros | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Houston Astros | 65c | 45.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Houston Astros | 63c | 41.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Houston Astros | 64c | 31.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 30.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Houston Astros | 61c | 29.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Houston Astros | 63c | 23.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Houston Astros | 64c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Houston Astros | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Washington NationalsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.