La Liga · resolved market
Elche CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb17265238823dcc2f6989e65d54f5e70f066ebc866ce536bea6a383a3d3e891c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1842…b628backed Under | 79c | 6,070$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 70cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 22c | 5,502$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,290.89 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…0c03backed Over | 45c | 4,319$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,369.11 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 15c | 3,211$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,721.12 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0a…70a0backed Under | 32c | 2,645$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Under | 56c | 2,324$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.37 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 54c | 1,190$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.61 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca6…0d08backed Over | 46c | 1,060$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 554.25$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.51 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 29c | 382.96$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.04 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7190…287abacked Under | 54c | 299.38$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 33c | 270.15$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.15 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +14.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…85f3backed Over | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 55c | 219.85$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.53 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf945…7eb1backed Over | 10c | 208.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +902.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 50c | 177.7$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.85 | 128 | 75%96 W · 32 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 46c | 108.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe666…14f5backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cbf8backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 232 | 55.6%129 W · 103 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…56b6backed Over | 46c | 96.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1986…cf16backed Under | 68c | 72.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 62c | 68.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…3a3fbacked Under | 54c | 62.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Under | 71c | 61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…a1c4backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 76c | 43.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…aa18backed Over | 32c | 37.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +62%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…d776backed Over | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +14.0wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd3…22b6backed Under | 54c | 27.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…15adbacked Under | 55c | 27.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562c…e035backed Under | 74c | 24.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 58c | 23.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Elche CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5this page
- Elche CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Elche CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5Over won
- Elche CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Elche CF (-1.5)Elche CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.