La Liga · resolved market
Elche CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e1ad0c34969b7380ce2404d4f0ef90a05d73f63dfe188d8304125c97d568a78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8efe…7b44backed Over | 37c | 2,703$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702.7 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…0c03backed Over | 39c | 2,570$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 64c | 2,561$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.15 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 36c | 2,517$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610.66 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 2,277$1,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.93 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Under | 61c | 1,999$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.39 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Under | 59c | 1,932$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.3 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 36c | 1,500$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 40c | 1,126$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.41 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…07adbacked Over | 39c | 827.03$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 49c | 524.96$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.73 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 36c | 500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 234 | 52.6%123 W · 111 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 4c | 476.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +12.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…2de2backed Under | 64c | 463.8$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Under | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Under | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Under | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 223 | 35%78 W · 145 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe38…f858backed Over | 39c | 310.26$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 64c | 301.96$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.57 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb0…5390backed Over | 36c | 250$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +14.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7190…287abacked Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 317 | 45.7%145 W · 172 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0a…70a0backed Under | 71c | 169.62$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…eca0backed Under | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 39c | 153.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.85 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…036abacked Under | 71c | 127.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1986…cf16backed Under | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 40c | 100.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 195 | 44.1%86 W · 109 L | +13.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Under | 62c | 90$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…16cabacked Under | 63c | 79.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 200 | 47.5%95 W · 105 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b5a1backed Under | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 40c | 75.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 37c | 72.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Under | 63c | 67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Under | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 52.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Under | 62c | 51.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 176 | 43.8%77 W · 99 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Under | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…667fbacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562c…e035backed Under | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…91eebacked Over | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Elche CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5this page
- Elche CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Elche CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5Over won
- Elche CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Elche CF (-1.5)Elche CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.