MLB · resolved market
Spread: National (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb199ad7fe77076bac3059c6a93aba81821e17ddf09dd2a575dcebad2559711aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Americanof National, American
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked American | 62c | 1,462$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.56 | 577 | 53.2%307 W · 270 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b88…9856backed National | 38c | 1,200$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.1 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…0b5fbacked National | 39c | 664.1$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked American | 61c | 462.24$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.88 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed National | 38c | 394$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.72 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5672backed National | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd76…6034backed National | 39c | 243.59$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed American | 61c | 202.93$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked American | 61c | 164.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,153 | 49.2%567 W · 586 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed National | 38c | 161.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked American | 61c | 135.77$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed American | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed American | 61c | 89.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked American | 61c | 80.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2857…3e27backed National | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c3…13e5backed American | 62c | 68.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked American | 61c | 67.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed American | 61c | 63.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…980abacked National | 39c | 62.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed National | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed American | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed National | 39c | 48.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 274 | 47.8%131 W · 143 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…aecdbacked National | 39c | 48.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked National | 38c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 194 | 35.6%69 W · 125 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked American | 62c | 41.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked American | 62c | 29.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: National (-1.5)this page
- American vs. National: O/U 10.5Under won
- American vs. National: O/U 7.5Under won
- American vs. National: O/U 8.5Under won
- MLB All-Star GameAmerican League won
- Spread: American (-2.5)American won
- Spread: American (-3.5)American won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.