MLB · resolved market
American vs. National: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x640aebc07122109491d99ee3bdc1a4a96afab8de7104278d803f90cb33fb0e91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 60c | 6,600$3,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,645 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 6,572$2,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,849.06 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Under | 47c | 4,745$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,494.74 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 47c | 4,005$1,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,882.18 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 46c | 3,081$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,417.19 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Under | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 53c | 2,915$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.05 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1556…b722backed Over | 50c | 2,887$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 49c | 2,698$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.8 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 47c | 2,666$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.01 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 51c | 2,018$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.69 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…5cc8backed Under | 53c | 2,000$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.34 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 1,923$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.34 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 1,911$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.39 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 46c | 1,264$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.26 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 1,164$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b38…6dc8backed Over | 18c | 1,121$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb5…98f8backed Under | 43c | 1,000$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 53c | 968.58$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.23 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…68ebbacked Under | 52c | 875.52$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.25 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 39c | 752.55$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.56 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 53c | 660.38$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.38 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…971fbacked Under | 52c | 659.89$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.75 | 328 | 50.3%165 W · 163 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed Under | 52c | 581.47$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.1 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Over | 47c | 580.39$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.87 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 53c | 453.11$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.3 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 46c | 408.18$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.68 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…4b4abacked Over | 5c | 367.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 48c | 308.33$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 49c | 302.04$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 54c | 257.53$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.53 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…e128backed Over | 48c | 229.17$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 379 | 41.2%156 W · 223 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Over | 48c | 201.08$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…32b7backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Under | 52c | 190$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf0…cad2backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3662…0e48backed Under | 53c | 184.91$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Under | 54c | 141.51$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5e…40b4backed Over | 46c | 139.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8255…4261backed Under | 42c | 134.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Under | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe846…252bbacked Under | 53c | 115$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25a4…69f6backed Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 53c | 76.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e63…7e29backed Over | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 536 | 39.9%214 W · 322 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 51c | 66.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…76b4backed Under | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Over | 47c | 64.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…7409backed Under | 52c | 53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 53c | 52.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 49c | 46.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 44.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…7f4dbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -4.3wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…cb6abacked Over | 48c | 39.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff8…3a15backed Over | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d6cabacked Under | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…5ea3backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…a328backed Under | 55c | 28.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…352fbacked Under | 53c | 28.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…a781backed Under | 53c | 27.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 48c | 21.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- American vs. National: O/U 8.5this page
- American vs. National: O/U 10.5Under won
- American vs. National: O/U 7.5Under won
- MLB All-Star GameAmerican League won
- Spread: American (-2.5)American won
- Spread: American (-3.5)American won
- Spread: National (-1.5)American won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.