MLB · resolved market
American vs. National: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9254fe0e26c50ed0d72031257c4f87d55908a8d6115fa047b0752669beadfc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Over | 59c | 10,165$6,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,029.52 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…234fbacked Under | 40c | 4,619$1,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,771.42 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 66c | 4,595$3,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562.15 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 30c | 4,097$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.06 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 55c | 3,379$1,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,858.4 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Under | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.99 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 43c | 1,553$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.89 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Under | 70c | 1,423$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.24 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 35c | 1,270$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.85 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Under | 41c | 1,220$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.51 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Under | 41c | 1,137$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.09 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 48c | 944.94$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.94 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…971fbacked Under | 46c | 798.44$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.16 | 328 | 50.3%165 W · 163 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 42c | 450.44$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.39 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 58c | 398.87$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.34 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 29c | 364.51$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.71 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 41c | 275.33$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.36 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf0…cad2backed Under | 44c | 211.36$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e5…c88ebacked Over | 55c | 208.13$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…7501backed Under | 53c | 198.64$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.36 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…4e6fbacked Over | 54c | 185.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 55c | 172.31$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.41 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa544…0c80backed Over | 58c | 167.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 58c | 130$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…e128backed Over | 60c | 116.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 379 | 41.2%156 W · 223 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…eae9backed Under | 45c | 104.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be3…0893backed Over | 58c | 103.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Over | 26c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Over | 22c | 85.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2208…53eebacked Over | 54c | 81.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 30c | 55.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…90a8backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 56c | 47.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…18c6backed Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060a…7659backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 44c | 35.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 42c | 34.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…c85bbacked Over | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae95…011abacked Under | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…2a53backed Under | 48c | 21.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- American vs. National: O/U 7.5this page
- American vs. National: O/U 10.5Under won
- American vs. National: O/U 8.5Under won
- MLB All-Star GameAmerican League won
- Spread: American (-2.5)American won
- Spread: American (-3.5)American won
- Spread: National (-1.5)American won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.