Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1b680da3304043c8fedbb960249d311c075cee96a4726fd4f7d5e517b31d40d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Torino FCof AC Milan, Torino FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,237 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe0c…04b6backed Torino FC | 78c | 1,919$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Torino FC | 79c | 1,374$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed AC Milan | 23c | 1,147$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.69 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked AC Milan | 22c | 876.26$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.85 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed AC Milan | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 405 | 49.6%201 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed AC Milan | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AC Milan | 9c | 208.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked AC Milan | 26c | 135.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Torino FC | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed AC Milan | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x112e…7b23backed AC Milan | 15c | 93.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Torino FC | 78c | 69.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…0d9abacked Torino FC | 77c | 53.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked AC Milan | 22c | 49.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Torino FC | 75c | 27.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Torino FC | 78c | 18.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Torino FC | 77c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 310 | 51.6%160 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Torino FC | 76c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +6.5wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)this page
- AC Milan vs. Torino FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AC Milan vs. Torino FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Torino FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Torino FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Torino FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)Torino FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.