Serie A · resolved market
AC Milan vs. Torino FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9b968d129d592144d5910ee9c198e81779ac7e6bf40f674eab6a4bcd71e855c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,467 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 12,975$7,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,479.92 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Over | 47c | 10,210$4,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,365.19 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 3,908$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,506.58 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 1c | 3,672$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…044bbacked Under | 79c | 3,329$2,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,629.9 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a0…d84fbacked Under | 1c | 3,017$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…fef1backed Under | 1c | 2,551$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37f…455dbacked Under | 34c | 1,751$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 72c | 1,707$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.92 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 6c | 1,663$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,563.57 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 13c | 1,249$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.49 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 28c | 911.6$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.25 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…958ebacked Under | 22c | 645.11$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.26 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 5c | 588$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 18c | 563.45$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.96 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 70c | 544.62$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.75 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Over | 69c | 496.26$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.84 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 11c | 493.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.81 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 63c | 346.93$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.63 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Over | 55c | 343.91$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.76 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…b2b4backed Under | 45c | 340.93$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 16c | 311.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.27 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Over | 72c | 275.82$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 53c | 224.44$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.49 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…e882backed Over | 23c | 218.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab20…e6a0backed Over | 62c | 207.31$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 35c | 198.41$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 44c | 165.81$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.44 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +14.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…fc29backed Over | 11c | 135.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.95 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Under | 58c | 135.05$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.33 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Over | 73c | 133.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 44c | 129.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 42c | 120.39$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 29c | 101.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 317 | 38.8%123 W · 194 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Under | 79c | 97.3$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 17c | 81.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 37c | 79.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 43c | 74.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Over | 44c | 67.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -56%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…68f1backed Under | 38c | 65.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…b4d5backed Over | 69c | 57.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…e406backed Over | 72c | 55.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Over | 62c | 47.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 51c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd985…1125backed Over | 43c | 40.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc644…1546backed Over | 71c | 33.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Over | 57c | 29.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9c…c6debacked Over | 48c | 29.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 59c | 26.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…4943backed Over | 72c | 26.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4547…ac9bbacked Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…1d57backed Over | 67c | 18.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AC Milan vs. Torino FC: O/U 4.5this page
- AC Milan vs. Torino FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AC Milan vs. Torino FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Torino FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Torino FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)Torino FC won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)Torino FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.