South American Leagues · resolved market
Will EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1c6a8e36586525e2e1c68865a0a9ba6bdeeddd7365693bd035cf79ff8ccd9c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Yes | 29c | 3,425$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -4.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed Yes | 29c | 2,166$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.27 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.99 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 1,887$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.98 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 1,594$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.06 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 76c | 1,491$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.17 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 72c | 905.79$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.09 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 72c | 834.76$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.48 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…345cbacked No | 71c | 360.56$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked No | 71c | 267.61$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.61 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…9ce5backed Yes | 30c | 220$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…e517backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 9c | 171.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 29c | 149.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed No | 69c | 126.68$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 24c | 120.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 120.48$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed No | 72c | 112.67$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa4…2d5cbacked Yes | 31c | 109.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…1388backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 28c | 91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 77c | 79.77$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 70c | 75.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Yes | 30c | 74.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 28c | 56.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 28c | 54.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 26c | 50.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 70c | 49.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 31c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 21c | 47.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 26c | 43.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 79c | 34.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed No | 71c | 20.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed No | 77c | 20.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 78c | 18.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…b5e5backed No | 72c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?this page
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-08-16?No won
- Will EC Vitória win on 2026-08-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.