South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-08-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x892b1243bdab8d148ffa8dc06681a9fc02e69d5027b0ce3dc068ca6c38ab63f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 11c | 16,599$1,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,864.74 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 71c | 15,066$10,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,369.24 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 29c | 10,000$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…da4bbacked Yes | 11c | 7,273$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…8b76backed Yes | 32c | 5,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 2,902$2,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.82 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec2…08afbacked Yes | 29c | 1,870$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.35 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,516$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.75 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 2c | 1,417$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 237 | 33.8%80 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 29c | 825$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.25 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…1fd2backed Yes | 11c | 700.63$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.61 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 28cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…ddf1backed Yes | 9c | 613.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 27c | 496.36$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.6 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 29c | 373$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.17 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 29c | 328.38$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Yes | 30c | 270$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed No | 70c | 187.46$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 66c | 154$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…1ef1backed No | 71c | 151.98$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 16c | 144.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 13c | 138.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 28c | 133.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed No | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd08b…b74cbacked Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Yes | 32c | 98.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 31c | 98.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 21c | 96.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Yes | 17c | 95.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 88.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 16c | 88.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 12c | 87.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 73c | 82.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 70c | 79.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked No | 72c | 78.28$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb42…0ad9backed No | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 74c | 46.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…c93abacked No | 75c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 73c | 42.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 72c | 39.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…fd8fbacked No | 72c | 37.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 69c | 28.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…b037backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 71c | 26.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 71c | 22.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 264 | 65.9%174 W · 90 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 72c | 22.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…9871backed No | 72c | 20.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a1…ab16backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 72c | 18.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73be…16f5backed No | 72c | 17.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-08-16?this page
- Will EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?No won
- Will EC Vitória win on 2026-08-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.