NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1ce1ab3eacac04044692ed3295f4325fb77f3f026c0a88c1f5d043bc69723f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9164…ba86backed Under | 49c | 6,355$3,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,113.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 5,398$2,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,622.35 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098b…1fa5backed Under | 47c | 4,500$2,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,115 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 45c | 3,964$1,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783.91 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Over | 55c | 3,640$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,638 | 245 | 49%120 W · 125 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 3,403$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.27 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…7e18backed Over | 51c | 3,329$1,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9623…9604backed Over | 51c | 3,027$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Over | 50c | 2,500$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Under | 52c | 2,125$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Over | 52c | 1,390$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.33 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 9c | 1,007$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.62 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Under | 49c | 1,000$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Under | 45c | 936.8$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.56 | 382 | 51%195 W · 187 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Over | 55c | 908$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.6 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Under | 49c | 881.3$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.84 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 55c | 799.98$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.99 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 47c | 783.29$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.86 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 695$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.55 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 48c | 360.39$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.99 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Under | 50c | 308.96$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.48 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abf…6024backed Under | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 47c | 296.88$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.53 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 45c | 266.67$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 47c | 217.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 48c | 161.3$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99e…fa3dbacked Under | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa952…14a5backed Under | 49c | 79.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 56c | 54.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 49c | 47.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfedd…32c4backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Over | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 548 | 54.2%297 W · 251 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…1440backed Under | 47c | 30.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…6e14backed Under | 52c | 24.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Raptors won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- RJ Barrett: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 17.5No won
- RJ Barrett: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Raptors won
- Timberwolves vs. RaptorsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.